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Option Trading Approach
What is OneWay?
OneWay is my systematic approach to finding stocks with relative strength and
weakness in the market. Click here to learn more.
What are your trading philosophies?
In general, form a market opinion and find stocks with relative strength and
weakness using technical and fundamental analysis. Form an opinion on the
stock, devise a game plan and be a directional trader. To learn more, read
through my Blog archives and subscribe to
the news feed to keep current.
Do you use technical analysis?
Yes, my searches quantify technical indicators and perform the first level of
screening. Using the OneOption Option Trading Scanner, I
quickly flip through charts and I look for tight directional formations. On a
longer-term basis, I place more weight on long, moderately sloped trend lines
and major moving averages. As my time horizon zooms-in, 5-10 day horizontal
support and resistance levels increase in importance. The volume is also
important.
My biggest tool is my scanner. I have complex programs that measure a stock's
current condition and compare it to its past. Once the stock passes through the
filter, I keep the analysis fairly straightforward. I have a variety of
charting packages that I use to draw trend lines and overlay moving averages. I
have also found Yahoo Finance to be a great free resource. I am very visual and
if a pattern (ascending triangle, cup and handle.) is obvious it will carry
more meaning because I feel more traders will see it as well. Trend lines,
moving averages, price/volume and support/resistance levels are my weapons.
What fundamental analysis do you use?
Fundamental analysis is an integral part of my decision making. It gives me
confidence and "staying power". I evaluate all of the financial statements and
I'm a big fan of liquidity and cash flow. I look for earnings and revenue
growth and I use forward P/E and PEG ratios help me cut to the chase. I also
look at the macro environment and evaluate competition, brand loyalty and
barriers to entry. The opposite would apply to short candidates.
How do you determine the option strategy?
Option trades are the icing on the cake. Before I even consider
trading options, I look at the liquidity and evaluate the bid/ask spreads. Only
about 30% of the candidates can be considered for option trades because the
bid/ask spreads are too wide and I'm giving up too much "edge". I dissect my
opinion of the stock and the direction, magnitude and duration of the move will
determine the strategy. I also breakdown and factor in my confidence in the
analysis, the market and my recent performance. Once these variables have been
"nailed down", I look at the implied volatilities of the options. Collectively,
the answer to these questions will lead me to an optimal strategy. To learn
more about my option trading philosophies, read my
Blog.
Why do you look for stocks that don't have options?
I won't pass up a good trade just because it doesn't have options. In fact, some
of my best trades use the underlying stock. One of the advantages of being a
small trader is that I can trade small size and make it worthwhile. I will
consider trades that the "big boys" won't even look at and a few hundred shares
can be very lucrative. I can spot a trader who is trying to move size in an ill
liquid stock and I want to shadow them. This is a big advantage for small
traders and it should be discarded. Once you get away from the big
capitalization stocks, the option liquidity falls off quickly. A word of
advice, trade stock!
Why do you trade relative strength and weakness?
A trader needs an "edge" and I feel that predicting the market on a short-term
basis is a difficult task. All eyes are focused on the S&P 500 and if ever
there was "fair value", it is the price of that index at any moment in time.
When I'm trading against large institutions that offset with options, baskets
and futures and have lower commissions and a floor presence, I don't think I
can gain an advantage. On the other hand, if I can find stocks that are leading
the market higher or dragging it lower, I can get the market direction wrong
and not lose my shirt. Often, I can make money on the trade. If I combine long
and short positions, I can reduce my market risk and place directional trades.
I'm also able to consider less liquid stocks that are in a very predictable
pattern. This is my edge.
How do you place your stops?
Before I get into a trade I outline my expectations for the stock. If it has
lost its relative strength or weakness, violated an important price level or
gone flat, I will consider getting out of the trade. In the Daily and Weekly
Reports I give general entry and exit guidelines. In the option reports I
simply send Update Alerts when it is time to get out. I'm more tolerant of
option trades because the risk is limited and the bid/ask spreads will keep me
from jumping back in if the stock gets "on track". Where options are concerned,
once I'm out. I'm out.
What happens once a stock is on a watch list?
Every day our routine yields a handful of stocks that make it into a global
watch list. These stocks are poised to move or in some instances they've
already started. If that's the case, we want to let them rest for a day or two
before taking a position. The best stocks each day appear in the Daily Report
watch list. The ones that get the most mention make the best trades.
Why do the stocks seem like they have taken off?
Often the stocks have moved and that is how they gained our attention. We seek
stocks that have done something noteworthy and we want to ride the momentum.
Often we need it to work off an overbought or oversold condition before we
enter. That is the function of the watch lists. They are a holding tank for
possible trades.
Do you trade earnings?
I look for high probability situations. To me earnings are nothing more than a
crapshoot. Sometimes the company exceeds estimates and they get hammered. Other
times they miss "the number" and everyone loves it. I honestly have not met
anyone who has consistently beat this game. I have had success trading before
and after releases, but not during. I also don't like to trade news and this
certainly falls into that category.
Do you trade news?
News to me is "noise". I need to let the excitement settle down before I can
tell which way the stock will go. In a news environment, the stock is all over
the place and it is easy to get "scared out" of a position with the rest of the
speculators on the first whipsaw. To me a good trade is one that is on a nice
straight path without much volatility. A trade that I feel good about and I
have staying power in. By the way, I trade in a vacuum. I don't like to be
influenced by outside information. Personally, I like to trade in the absence
of news. It is supply and demand in a pure form where I can normally get a good
read on what's going on. The most interesting trading opportunities are the
ones were the volume is spiking, the price is just starting to move and there
is no news. You've read deep into this so here is a buried tip. Look at stocks
that are closing on their high/low of the day. In particular, where a nice move
on abnormally high volume has push the stock to an extreme in the last 15
minutes of trading. If you can find them. the move tends to continue the next
day. Before you pull the trigger, make sure there isn't a scheduled news
release after the close. This would nullify the opportunity.
Do you trade index options?
I tend to stay away from index trades. I'm not opposed to trading them, it's
just that I can find a better "edge" elsewhere. On occasion, I will trade
out-of-the-money (OTM) put credit spreads on the OEX if the implied volatility
gets over-extended. An "edge" exists in that market and strategy. Hedgers pump
up the put premium (relative to OTM calls).
Do you look at implied volatilities?
Yes. I look at the overall implied volatilities (IV's) and I use the VIX to help
me assess the macro environment. Of greatest importance is relative value. The
same holds true for a stock. I'm interested in the option IVs compared to the
historical volatility of the stock, but I'm also interested in the option IVs
compared to the historical IVs of the options. In general, I buy low IV options
and sell high IV options provided that the high IV is not the result of a
sudden, uncharacteristic spike.
What should I do if the options are ill liquid?
If the opportunity looks good, trade the stock. Don't give up your "edge" to the
option Market Makers and don't forego a solid chance to make money.
Do you trade spreads?
Yes. I have two option reports that extensively make use of spreads. Credit
spreads and diagonals are my preference.
Why is the market important?
75% of all stocks follow the market. If I can forecast the market with some
accuracy, I can weight my long and short positions accordingly and boost my
performance relative to being balanced.
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Billing
How will I be billed?
OneOption, LLC requires everyone to agree to auto billing. Your credit card will
be billed the day your subscription expires. This policy makes it convenient
for both of us and automation helps me keep your subscription costs down. To
avoid being charged for the next period you must cancel your subscription seven
business days before it expires.
Are all of the services offered separately?
Yes. All of the services are offered ala Carte and you must subscribe to each
one separately.
Is there a discount for multiple services?
Instead of inflating the prices and offering discounts, I decided to make all of
the services reasonably priced. At the end of the day, if the service doesn't
pay for itself you won't renew no matter what kind of discount I offer. I do
not offer a multiple subscription discount at this time.
Can I pay by check?
Yes, a $250 minimum applies. Once the check clears the account will be
permissioned. To make this arrangement use the chat or send an e-mail.
Can I subscribe for a longer term?
With the exception of people paying by check, a quarterly auto-bill subscription
is all I offer.
How do I change my credit card number?
You will need to contact us by chat or e-mail to change the credit card number.
Is the billing process secure?
Yes. When you subscribe to a service you will be directed to
Authorize.net, one of the nation's largest transaction gateways. They
will collect and store all of your credit card information in their secure
environment. OneOption, LLC does not have or want access to this information.
How do I cancel?
We've made it very easy to cancel. When you log in, you will always start out in
the Account Settings page. Simply scroll down to the subscription area. Below
it and to the right, you will see a cancel button. Click it and you will see
small boxes appear to the right of each subscription. Select the services you
wish to discontinue and click cancel. You can use the service until it expires.
If you don't like what we offer, we apologize. The least we can do is to make
it easy for you to stop your subscription.
How far in advance do I have to cancel?
To avoid being charged for the next period you must cancel 7 business days prior
to expiration.
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Can I change services and get credit for time remaining?
You can add services anytime you like. If you are hoping to change a service and
have us apply a credit to the new one the answer is - no. I've tried to
accommodate everyone by making my product accessible and by keeping the
subscriptions short-term.
Can I get a refund if I don't like the service?
No, all sales are final. We give every customer the opportunity to take the FREE
TRIAL and experience our products and services before they make a commitment.
If you're not sure, spend more time going to the free areas and checking out
past reports.
What credit cards do you accept?
We accept all major credit cards. Visa, MasterCard, Discover and American
Express.
What if the rates increase?
If you never cancel a subscription and it never lapses, you will never have a
rate increase. When you sign-up, the auto-bill is configured and that is your
rate.
Can I get a refund if I forget to cancel?
Sorry. We will not give you a refund. If you suspected two days "in" that you
might not like the service, cancel it right away. You can still continue to use
it until it expires and you won't have to remember to cancel it later. We've
done all we can to make canceling easy; you have to do your part too.
Can I suspend my account while I go on vacation?
We don't have the systems or manpower to oblige that request.
If I cancel a service and come back, can I get my old rate?
You are rewarded for continuing your subscription through "thick and thin". If
you cancel or you have issues with your credit card that causes a lapse, you
will have to subscribe at the new rate.
What if my credit card expires?
Contact us by chat or e-mail and we will call you to update your account. Please
do not send credit card information via chat or e-mail.
Stock Option Research Reports
How do I know which report to choose?
In the left panel of each report you will find a Learn More link. Click it to
find out more about each report.
All of our reports are posted to the website. Log in and go to the report to get
current.
How can I see the current positions for each report?
You will need to be a current subscriber or be registered for the 5-Day Trial.
The open positions are found by using the Live Update link in the upper left
panel of each report. The Live Update page for the Daily Report shows the watch
list in the right margin. The symbols are green for bullish and red for
bearish. Click on the symbol to bring up the original report.
When I go to the site, why does the same report always show up?
This happens when the site does not recognize you as a subscriber. Visitors will
see a past report when they surf the site. If you are a subscriber, you need to
log in. Once you do so, the website will recognize you and the current report
will appear by default.
Can I get an e-mail sent to two different e-mail addresses?
We do not have that capability at this time.
Can I sign up for a second trial so that I can try another
report?
We want you to try another service. Once you've subscribed to a service, click
on the report you want to view and a page will give you instructions on how to
proceed. You are entitled to 3-day passes. If you have not subscribed, you are
limited to one trial.
Why does it say Subscription Required when I go to view the
page?
The website does not recognize you as a subscriber. Your trial may have ended,
your subscription may have ended or you forgot to log in.
What is the difference between Trade Alert and Update
Alert?
A Trade Alert is issued when an option report has a new position. The e-mail
will contain a link back to the website. Log in and go to the report to get the
trade specifics. An Update Alert tells you that there is new commentary on an
existing position. Log in and use the Live Update link in the left panel. Look
at the existing positions and identify the recent instructions by date. It
could simply be commentary or it could be exit instructions.
The e-mail alert only had a link and no trade information.
That's all the e-mail will ever contain. We do not transmit our research. It is
all posted to the website and you will need to log in to view it.
Where can I look at the open positions?
With the exception of the Weekly Report, every other report tracks open
positions and they are found using the Live Updates link in the upper left
panel of the report. Here you can view charts and link back to the original
report for quick reference.
Can I go back and look at past reports?
Yes. After 10 days, the Daily Reports are moved over to the Past Reports
archives. Use the dropdown menu at the top of the report to access them by
date. The option reports are moved over to the archives one the trade has been
closed.
I simply don't have time to write commentary on over 40 stocks in the Daily
Report watch list. I prefer to bring the most attractive candidates to your
attention. In all update pages for all reports, there is often nothing to
comment on. I'm don't want to add "filler". When you get an Update Alert,
you'll know that it's important.
How often do you update positions in the option reports?
The positions are updated 1-2 times a week. When I enter an option trade my
risk is limited, the bid/ask spreads are wide and my commitment to
the position is higher than it is for stock trades. I'm more willing to let it
move against me. I don't want to provide tick-by-tick commentary and if I see a
note worth event, I'll let you know. As expiration approaches, the comments
will pick up. I also want to limit the Update Alerts. When you get one, you'll
know it is important.
How are the option reports different from each other?
As the level increases the strategies become more complex and the capital
requirement is higher. You can find out more about each option report by
clicking the Learn More link in the upper left panel of each one
When are the reports posted?
The Daily and Weekly Reports are posted before the market closes. The option
reports are typically released during market hours. They can be spread out over
weeks or come all at once. I trade when the opportunity presents itself.
I can't short stock in my IRA. What should I do?
If you can't short stock, you can buy puts. Also, most firms will let you do
call credit spreads where the risk is limited. If the options are ill liquid
you will have to open a second non-IRA account or forego the opportunity.
What type of orders do you use?
All of the orders are day orders unless specified. I normally use limit orders,
however, you should have the ability to place conditional orders and trailing
stops. Those are "standard fare" with most brokerage firms.
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OneOption Option Trading Scanner
Why aren't all of the columns populating?
When the market makes dramatic directional moves, you will find that the contra
opportunities decrease. The good news is that the stocks that do appear are
that much better and it takes less time to sort through them. Conversely, the
searches that are going with the momentum will have many stocks to select from.
How do I customize a search?
Before you can access our proprietary searches and customize your own pages, you
will need to subscribe to the OneOption Scanner. As a subscriber, go to the
Scanner area of the web site. In the left panel you will see a link labeled
"Create A Scan". To configure a page that matches your trading profile, you
will be asked to define a series of variables.
-
Identify the column you would like to configure (1-6).
-
Select your market bias (bullish/bearish).
-
Select your time horizon (day/week)
-
Select the pattern (reversal/continuation)
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Select the trigger (early/confirmed)
-
Select the Set-up.
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Once the Set-up has been selected, you will see the column populate. Sometimes,
the column will have many symbols, other times it will not. It is dependent on
the set-up and current market conditions.
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Click on a symbol to bring up a chart.
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If you want to have six different searches on the page, repeat steps 1-7.
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Once you have configured the whole page to your liking, use the button in the
lower left corner to Save and Name the page as a favorite. From this point
forward, you will find the page listed in the dropdown menu.
How many stocks do you search?
There are over 20,000 stocks in the database.
What do the four letters mean?
The four letters designate the Class of option trade. You can learn more about
the whole hierarchy by studying the Tutorials section.
What does the column header mean?
The column header describes the Class and Set-up for the trade. Hover over it
and you will see a brief description appear in the left panel. You can learn
more about the whole hierarchy by studying the Tutorials section.
What should I be looking for?
In general, I start with the 1W charts and look for very tight directional moves
with very few head fakes. I pay close attention to periods where the stock has
ignored the market and moved against it. If the 1W chart looks good, I zoom out
to the 1M and 1Y charts. There I'm looking for a significant
breakout/breakdown. I identify common patterns, trend lines, moving averages,
volume and horizontal support/resistance lines. If the move is significant, the
stock makes it to the fundamental screening.
Are the charts real-time?
The charts are delayed up to 20 minutes.
Are the results real-time?
The results are real-time the instant they are posted, but they are updated on a
cycle.
How often are the results updated?
There are 70+ searches that are run sequentially every 20 seconds. There is
always a search running. When the results are returned they are posted to the
appropriate page and the time stamp is updated for the whole page even though
it was only one column that was "refreshed".
Is there a "best" search?
I use them all. If you have a particular style, you may find one better than
another. In all of my experience, I have found great opportunities in all of
them and I don't want to limit myself.
Why aren't there more Weekly searches?
My customers are focused on short-term trading and the demand for the weekly
searches is minimal. Should that change, I will add them.
What is the significance of Movers and Pre-Open?
These are two very powerful tools that are free for all traders to use. They
will quickly help you get your bearings before you start your trading day. In
the left panel of the Scanner you will see a link called "How to Scan",
use it to learn more about this resource.
Can a symbol appear more than once?
Yes. That is by design. If a symbol conforms to more than one search, it
increases the importance of the move and I am less likely to miss it.
Do ETFs show up?
Yes, they do show up. However, I would encourage you to identify the source of
the relative strength or weakness within the ETF and trade the stock.
Are the symbols arranged in order?
Yes, the symbols are arranged according to dollar net change. For bullish
searches, the biggest dollar gainers are at the top and listed in descending
order. It is the opposite for bearish searches and the biggest dollar losers
are at the top.
Why is the time off?
The time reflects Pacific Standard Time (PST).
What is the difference between Early and Confirmed?
An early search finds stocks that are "happening" now. Often there will be many
results to sift through. Some work out, some don't. As a trader I want to see
everything and I'll decide if it looks "right". I like getting an early jump
and taking the risk that it might not work out. On the other hand, some traders
only want to see the trades that have made the move and are following through.
From a programming standpoint I was faced with the dilemma of being too "open"
vs. too "restrictive". I was able to solve this issue by creating a new trade
Type - Trigger. There is one other way I use this feature. Yesterday a stock
from my Early searches may have been saying, "Look at me". If I didn't pull the
trigger, the next day it may give me reminder in the Confirmed searches, "You
looked at me yesterday and you didn't do anything. Here I am again today.doing
what I was supposed to - last chance".
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Support
How can I change my password?
When you log in, stay on the Account page. Click on the word password, enter
your new password, re-enter it and click "change".
How can I cancel a service?
Go to the Account page after you have logged in. In the lower right corner you
will see a button that reads, "Cancel a Service". Click it and boxes will
appear next to your subscriptions. Mark the box next to the service you want to
cancel and click "Cancel a Service" again. Once you do that you will see a red
arrow appear. You can continue to use the service until it expires. Remember,
to avoid being charged for the next period you must cancel 7 business days
before the subscription expires.
How can I change my e-mail?
Go to the Account page, click on the word e-mail, enter your new e-mail and
click the Change button.
How can I change my credit card?
To change your credit card information you will need to contact us by chat or
e-mail. We will call you for the new information. Please do not send credit
card information by chat or e-mail.
Why won't the charts work?
Chances are you have your pop-up windows turned off by your security software.
Why haven't I received any trades by e-mail?
The only correspondence we send by e-mail is a Trade Alert or an Update Alert.
The e-mail contains a link to the log in area. You will need to log in and go
to the appropriate report to view the research. Everything is posted to the
website and trade information is not e-mailed.
Why can't I print the pages?
You can print the pages but they will not turn out well. I want to keep the site
looking sharp and I'm not as concerned about how they look in hard copy. All of
the information is archived and there should not be a reason to print it.
Why can't I log in?
It is possible that you are using the wrong e-mail address or password. Remember
to add the .com or .net to the end of your e-mail address. If you continue to
have problems, chat with us or send us an e-mail.
Why do old reports show up when I go to the report?
This happens when the site does not recognize you as a subscriber. Visitors will
see a past report when they surf the site. If you are a subscriber, you need to
log in. Once you do so, the website will recognize you and the current report
will appear by default.
Why won't your system take my credit card?
We accept all credit cards. If you have reviewed the information you input and
it is accurate, your credit card company is blocking the transaction. Please
contact them to resolve the issue. If everything checks out with them, chat
with us or send us an e-mail.
Can I use two e-mails for the alerts?
Not at this time.
What happens if the system goes down?
In the unlikely event that there is a prolonged disruption, we will extend your
subscription by the number of days we are down.
Why do I get an error message when I try to sign up for the
trial?
Chances are you have already registered and the system will not let you go
through the trial again. We only allow one trial per person.
Why doesn't my password work?
Chances are the password is incorrect. Send us an e-mail or chat with us and we
will reset it.
Why didn't I get the last trade alert?
For the Daily Report or Weekly Report you might have unmarked the Notify Me box.
For all of the reports, it is possible that your ISP is having e-mail server
issues. I test my e-mail servers and if there are issues on my end, I will let
everyone know.
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