Class: Bearish, Week, Reversal, Early

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Bearish

  • Focus on stocks that have run up more than 10% in the last few months, but still have a two to three year down trend.
  • Look for recent relative weakness to the market.
  • The potential down reversal should be forming below the two-year trend lines and ideally below the 200 day moving average.
  • The rally should be the result of sector rotation or a rally in the overall market. Avoid stocks that are relatively strong within their sector and have recently released material positive news.
  • Sell-offs should be accompanied by volume increases.
  • Look for signs of weakness by using technical indicators like RSI and Money-flow.
chart

Week

  • Look for fairly steep spikes within a two-year down trend. The spike will provide the stock with plenty of “leg room” to move lower over the course of a week or two.
  • This trade may take days to unfold. Try to scale in and average your entry cost.
  • Give the trade some breathing room and don’t place protective stops too close. Longer-term resistance levels can be used for protective stops.
  • The profit/loss percentage per trade will be larger than it is for Day trades. You don’t want to get “shaken-out” of a sustained move so you must be willing to give the trade more latitude.
  • If overall market conditions are improving, consider reducing the position.
  • If the move has not materialized in a week, exit the position and keep the stock on a watch list for future consideration.
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