Daily Market Analysis

2022-08-22

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:30:00
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY– I’m sure the media outlets have justified the 50 point overnight S&P 500 drop with some nonsense. The market rallied 12% in a month and this is profit taking. In the last few weeks I have...
09:35:00
Pete
09:40:00
Pete
There was a question about anticipating vs waiting for technical confirmation. It is critically important to read the previous price action and to get context. That helps us to understand what is happening currently and watch for turning points that...
09:49:00
Pete
A wimpy rally is our best scenario. 1OP has still not crossed. If we can't get into the gap it will set up a good short.
09:55:00
Pete
It is always hard to short after such a big drop. We have the bearish 1OP cross now. If we can't retrace half of the long red candle, that is bearish. A new lod is bearish. If you do not...
10:01:00
Pete
How do I get enough confidence to short and stick with the position after such a big drop? Experience. If you look at the D1 chart you can see that on June 9 we broke a minor horizontal support level...
10:04:00
Pete
Think of shorting this morning like this. Given the technical breakdown, do I believe that we have seen the low of the day? If the answer is no, take comfort knowing that you will have a chance to get out....
10:10:00
Pete
If you do believe that this could be the lod, then you should absolutely not short. You should wait patiently for a failed bounce or for stacked red candles. when you have that confirmation, you can proceed with confidence. Trading...
10:12:00
Pete
I am not seeing any big bounces or retracement. Sellers are keeping a lid on the action and that is why you are not seeing tails under body and why you are seeing lower highs. I do want to see...
10:16:00
Pete
We are early in the bear 1OP cross and I want it to produce!
10:24:00
Pete
UVXY inching higher and it is on the verge of a bullish 1OP cross.
10:34:00
Pete
If this is NOT a red candle, I don't have the follow thru I want on that red candle and I would start taking some of my short off. Trading early is riskier and I want to lock in gains....
10:37:00
Pete
I would be taking gains on some of my short here and I would set a target 10 S&P pts lower in case I get a long red candle. If we hold the lod for another couple bars, I am...
10:39:00
Pete
The longer the market spends on the lod, the greater the chances of a bounce. It might only be one bar, but it could be 10 pts or more. I don't want to weather that because it could be more...
10:41:00
Pete
I would be out of an /ES short here.
10:42:00
Pete
Now we wait to see if the bounce is a solo, or if there is more to it. If it is a solo that is immediately erased, I know there is more downside and I will look to reshort. If...
10:45:00
Pete
The reason for being a bit more passive in here is: 1. We are shorting a big gap down so it is riskier. 2. These were not stacked long red candles, they were tiny. 3. A good portion of the...
10:54:00
Pete
Again, in the context of /ES, I am not trying to get cute by playing a bounce. This in all likelihood is a bearish trend day and I need to focus on the short side. I have zero evidence that...
10:58:00
Pete
Friday I mentioned this early in the day. If you waited patiently and you identified the bear trend early, you had to wait two hours. Eventually your next short set up. Very active pros can trade those bounces, but for...
11:00:00
Pete
New lod and the bounce lasted < 30 min. That is bearish
11:05:00
Pete
Marginal new low. Overlapping candles. Gradual drift lower. When this bearish cycle runs I believe a bounce will set up on a bullish cross. You have to let that bullish cycle run and see what it produces. This looks similar...
12:13:00
Pete
So we don't really have 1OP to guide us because it is flat lining at zero. That's what is should be doing during this lackluster price movement. We have had a very wimpy bounce. In the back or your mind...
13:43:00
Pete
If you missed the early drop because you were afraid that the market would bounce, that's OK. In the last two hours your suspicion that this was a bear trend day was confirmed. The market had very little lift off...
13:53:00
Pete
Compressed price action on the lod with 1OP in a deep trough. It is nice that the last red candle has been able to hold, but we want to see follow thru right now. If we do not get a...
13:57:00
Pete
Why do we need the red candle here? The action today has been very lackluster. Very tiny candles and not a lot of movement. We took out the lod and that could have been to trigger sell stops. That means...
14:25:25
Pete
14:28:00
Pete
What do bears want here? A benign 1OP bullish cross. We want to stay near the lod. If that happens, the next 1OP bearish cross is likely to produce the next leg lower.
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