Daily Market Analysis

2022-09-20

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

Click to expand content and reposition slider.

09:30:44
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The SPY broke a key support level at $390 last Friday and we are likely to test the low of the year in the next few weeks. The S&P 500 is down 25 points before...
09:31:11
Pete
Good morning. This is pre-Fed so keep it light and expect chop.
09:58:34
Pete
We have a bearish 1OP cross pending, but the price action right here suggests a bounce is coming. We are seeing compressed candles and tails. I wold like to see a nice green "solo" candle that instantly reverses. That would...
10:05:25
Pete
I don't like this gradual drift lower with tiny candles for shorting here. If you have the right stock - fine, but otherwise I would be patient.
10:06:19
Pete
We need to see a green candle or two that are instantly pounded down. Then we can short. There is a risk that we get a good bounce and I am not expecting buyers to just roll over after the...
10:11:06
Pete
This green candle servers two purposes. 1. It allows us to see of the SPY still has heavy selling pressure. If it does, this will instantly get pounded down. If it stacks another green candle, this bounce could gain traction....
10:13:37
Pete
Important NOT to jump to conclusions. This looks like a bear engulf and the candle bears want, but it has not completed yet. If it rallies back to the high it will send a very different message. If it closes...
10:20:09
Pete
Now we know that sellers are in control. That green candle was immediately reversed. There are tails on each candle so buyers still have not thrown in the towel. I would short in small size knowing that this is likely...
10:25:12
Pete
We want each of these green candles to get smacked down leaving wicks.
10:29:52
Pete
Unless we attack the low from Mon with long red candles, a breakdown will probably only generate one candle through and then a bounce. That would sync up with a bullish 1OP when we get there. 
10:33:52
Pete
These are tough moves to short because every time you get a nice dip, that bar retraces and you wonder if you will get squeezed. The green candles do play a role, because they attract buyers and each time they...
10:34:33
Pete
We want a new lod in the next two candles. 
10:38:04
Pete
There we go. Now it is more obvious they will gun for support at the lod from Mon.
10:42:54
Pete
Where's Will Smith when you need him? The SPY needs a good slapping.
10:43:31
Pete
AwkwardAlien wrote: know yourself, I can't short these candles I don't have the patience *personal character flaw of mine* I am going to wait for better price action and if it doesn't happen then I just won't tradeExcellent that you...
10:44:23
Pete
S&P scalpers are shorting those retracements and buying near the low of the prior candle.
10:57:58
Pete
1OP is likely to cross just above zero. Given the lackluster drop during the bear cycle, this could be a good one and we could go in the gap
10:59:44
Pete
When you get a couple of green candles in a stubborn move lower like this it is a sign that a bounce is coming and that they will try the other side. Those greens need to get hammered back down...
11:00:58
Pete
In just 3 candles, we have erased most of the downside from the last 90 min. This is a bounce that can gain traction on this cycle.
11:03:39
Pete
The good news is that there is movement. That gradual drip lower was no good. If the bounce stalls, 1OP could roll over and then bullish specs will take heat. In this scenario there will be "fuel" for a move...
11:18:13
Pete
Bulls do not want to lose the open of that last long green candle. They need to attack the hod and breakout. 
11:26:26
Pete
This is a do or die candle. If we take out the low from the long green candle, 1OP has crossed back down and resistance at the hod will be confirmed. If the open from the long green candle is...
11:27:28
Pete
One thing should be obvious 2 hours in. This is a choppy market and you want to trim your size and trade count.
11:40:53
Pete
SPY was able to weather a nasty drop in 1OP and hold the open of the last long green candle. I view that as bullish, but we need to see a green candle right now or risk pulling back. 
11:42:00
Pete
If we get a green candle, 1OP will be in the early stages of a bullish cycle and we are within striking distance of the hod. 
11:44:33
Pete
I am not overly bullish or bearish, just looking for scenarios that will result in a move. I would prefer to breakout to the upside because then I believe we could have better movement both ways. When we were gradually...
11:52:19
Pete
1OP has been in a very long and unproductive bear cycle. This is looking more and more like a breakout above the hod and into the gap.
11:52:35
Pete
that was timely.
12:27:35
Pete
New hod and now we are retracing. At least we have some range
12:27:56
Pete
1OP will cross in 2 bars or so.
12:28:34
Pete
We just gave up the open from the last long green candle and the prior high of day. Bulls could not get anything going and this was just to trigger buy stops. 
12:52:57
Pete
Compression above lod. We could be due for a bounce. 1OP will cross in 10 min I believe. This is just chop, but if you can time some of these moves you can make a little money
13:11:19
Pete
The programs triggered buy stops at the hod, let's see if they can do it on the lod. 
13:11:39
Pete
The sell stops at the lod will be more substantial. 
13:16:16
Pete
BTW, this is the way you want to attack the lod. Nice red candles, very little retracement on the way down (brief pause) and then more red candles.
13:30:31
Pete
$.40 on SPY from Mon low. That is where the sell stops are.
13:35:03
Pete
we touched that low, now we have to breach it. 3 touches there so if  we don't take it out today, that will be 4. At some point they will gun for it. These are important levels to remember because...
13:36:41
Pete
If we go thru, we should not short the first long red candle. We need to make sure that it holds and that we see follow thru. Once you have follow thru you can short. 
13:38:17
Pete
If you are not short right now, you do not want to short here. You needed to be onboard at a higher level with some cushion here. This is a bad place to short because we could bounce or chop...
13:39:27
Pete
I would prefer a brief 1OP bullish cycle where we preserved the prior lod. Then bear cross and a full head of steam to $382.
13:44:01
Pete
I hope you understand why I wanted that new hod earlier. That expands the range and it attracts traders. Now you can see the resulting movement. 
13:45:27
Pete
Without that new hod we are trapped in the range we had for the first two hours.  
13:48:53
Pete
I am liking this set-up for a  breakdown. 1OP rising and SPY staying near lod
13:53:00
Pete
Breakdown... go ahead and give it to me. 
13:58:19
Pete
This has been an assault on $382 from the hod and I believe we will keep drifting lower. No one to stand in the way ahead of FOMC and programs will favor the drift lower
15:18:46
Pete
This is a "meat grinder" folks. Time to exit trades. You can see the long candles both ways. Institutions are position squaring. 
15:19:27
Pete
We had decent price movement for about 3 hours today and that is about all you can ask for. 
15:46:18
Pete
Top