2022-09-21

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09:27:35 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FED-DAY – All eyes are on the FOMC statement today. There is an 85% probability they will hike 75 basis points and a 15% probability they will hike 100 basis points. The tone will be critically important....
09:30:50 Pete	With regards to trading into year end, DaveW will attest to how well I trade into year end. He has been with me for many of these moves and we've made a lot of money. Last Nov I had many...
09:32:39 Pete	I don't guess what the market is going to do, I wait for technical confirmation. When I have it, I will not have a problem buying a low with "both hands". I just need the right formation and a capitulation...
09:40:14 Pete	1OP spike and bearish cross pending. We are testing the high from Tues. If we see a lot of resistance (wicks and bearish hammers) it will be a sign of resistance and we should look for shorts for the first...
09:41:27 Pete	If the bearish cycle does not produce and we hold most of the gap, the next bullish cycle will test the hod from Tues. If we break thru we will fill in some of the gap.
09:43:20 Pete	My commentary will be fairly limited. If this were a normal day, you should be able to visualize this first round of commentary and be able to plan around it. This is NOT a normal day and the prevailing theme...
09:44:58 Pete	I would love a smack down from an attempt to get thru the hod. Bearish hammer would do it. I have a  bearish 1OP cross and I would look for today's gap to fill. That might be the best move...
09:51:11 Pete	if this is a "solo" green we will know right away because it will reverse instantly. It lured in bullish specs and they will get flushed out. If the green candle is NOT a solo, there is a chance they...
09:52:47 Pete	If the halfway point of the green candle fails this bar I would take 1/2 short. Then I would add if open of green candle fails. Has to happen in next 10 min or all bets are off.
10:11:49 Pete	That last bullish hammer suggests we are going to test the gap. The halfway point of that long green candle held and 1OP in a deep trough. This is what bulls want.. Let's see if we breakout.
10:18:08 Pete	Pete wrote: That last bullish hammer suggests we are going to test the gap. The halfway point of that long green candle held and 1OP in a deep trough. This is what bulls want.. Let's see if we breakout. I should...
10:20:12 Pete	We should get a bullish cross in the next bar or two.
10:29:10 Pete	I would be long here
10:40:06 Pete	I would be stopped out of the long here and done with /ES until after the Fed (if then)
10:41:13 Pete	That was an immediate bear engulf off of the hod.
11:08:41 Pete	This is another one of those cases we discussed yesterday where 1OP is out of a deep trough, but did not quite get back to zero before another cross down. Do you take it? In this case we are testing...
11:10:20 Pete	We also have an M5 trendline breach. Very dull day so you look for any technical confirmation you can lean on and you keep it light.
13:56:46 Pete	So try not to interpret the Fed's statement. Just watch price.
13:57:25 Pete	Best not to trade until the press conf, but often we will get a sense of direction before that.
13:59:43 Pete	Stacked consecutive candles is the key and we need at least 3 decent ones in a row for any sense of direction. We will have some pretty big retracements per normal. You are 100% in control until you take a...
14:04:35 Pete	The terminal endpoint of 4.6% is a little high. Consensus has been around 4.3%
14:09:01 Pete	Bears want the half-way point of this red candle to hold
14:13:44 Pete	IMO the tone is set for a move lower. Watching $394. That has to hold
14:14:39 Pete	Sorry. Bad finger. $384.
14:14:48 Pete	The mid point of the long red candle
14:25:49 Pete	We have fair support around $382.60 from the last week. We want to stay below that.
14:26:05 Pete	That level is resistance now.
14:27:54 Pete	TheProfessor1970 wrote: Close enough  short at 3856I like it
14:28:10 Pete	OK, Let's see what Jerry has to say.
14:29:44 Pete	Inflation running away, supply chain disruptions alive and well, Russia causing higher energy prices, jobs strong... we are going to keep tightening. This is what I expect he will say. Nothing new.
14:39:07 Pete	Early volatility will settle down and we should get a better sense of direction here
14:40:14 Pete	I don't like that we are staying above $384 and I want to see that last green bar hammered down.
14:41:07 Pete	We chew away at that last green candle and buyers will pull bids. It has to start now.
14:46:58 Pete	We are stacking green. That is a sign we are going higher. At least for today
14:48:05 Pete	Massive reversals like that are rare after 30+ min of trading.
14:48:29 Pete	Some of this is short sqz.
14:57:25 Pete	Dave W wrote: market right where it was at 2pmAll this waiting for nothing
14:58:01 Pete	True. That was a great play
14:58:34 Pete	That first candle was a beauty and it got that cookin
15:02:35 Pete	1OP spiking and market not able to get through the hod. Needs to happen soon or we could see some selling.
15:09:53 Pete	I can't provide any meaningful commentary here. Bearish cross pending
15:29:16 Pete	Take out the lod and let's get out of this compression from the last 4 days. Nice red D1 should get us moving lower.
15:37:24 Pete	@TheProfessor1970 @Hariseldon Kudos to staying true to your thesis!!!
15:39:06 Pete	I don't trade these moves. I don't have the nerve for it.
15:39:49 Pete	I will say that when you get big moves on volume, 1OP is deadly. It is hard to have faith in an indicator, but it works time and again.
15:40:22 Pete	Nice. breakdown. That should discourage buyers.
15:41:12 Pete	Pete wrote: I will say that when you get big moves on volume, 1OP is deadly. It is hard to have faith in an indicator, but it works time and again. I meant in the context of wild swings and 30...
16:03:58 Pete	ican wrote: Silly question  - anticipating weakness to continue next few days? ( sometimes FOMC reaction reverses overnight but this had not an iota of any news to lift the market)The D1 chart on SPY broke the compression we were...
16:05:30 Pete	Hari and Prof. quite a clinic on shorting /ES today. Congratulations and thank you.
16:08:06 Pete	For most of you, the best course of action after the FOMC statement is to watch. It takes balls of steel to ride out this volatility and I will be the first one to tell you I don't trade it....
16:30:25 Pete
16:46:15 Pete	Snakebight wrote: Question @Pete On the end of the day 9/13/22, you said after a major sell off like that typically the next day is more muted. Does that sentiment apply to a post Fed meeting sell off? The move lower will confirm...