2022-10-05

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09:27:07 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY - There is not really much I can say other than bulls and bears continue to battle it out. I want you all to focus on one outcome today because it could set us up for...
09:28:18 Pete	We want the drop this morning to run its course quickly with minimal damage and strong buying. A close above the high from yesterday would be bullish. The bid check this morning will confirm that there are buyers at this...
09:29:22 Pete	If the market gives back all of the gains from Tues, we are back at square one and we trade two-sided price action.
09:34:37 Pete	ADP was in line and ISM services in 25 min. That could be an important release especially with ISM man on the soft side Mon.
10:00:19 Pete	ISM serv due out
10:02:59 Pete	56.7 for ISM serv which is a good number. 55.5 expected
10:06:26 Pete	testing lod from Tues. If we take this support out we will start to fill in some of the gap
10:07:21 Pete	bearish 1OP cross after a nice spike so that sets up well for a short here if Tues lod fails.
10:27:45 Pete	This is not a particularly strong move lower. We are in the gap, but I suspect that we will have a bounce well before we fill in the gap. We are still in the beginning of a bearish 1OP cycle...
10:41:36 Pete	I am still watching for a bid check and a very strong bounce. As unlikely as it might seem right now, the fact that we are in the gap from Tues will attract shorts. I don't believe the buyers from...
10:45:02 Pete	If we get this price action it would actually set us up with at least a few days of bullish price action so I would like to see it. I want this bearish cycle to complete without any further damage....
10:46:59 Pete	One more push lower with a bullish hammer or a bullish engulf is what I would like to see. No need to rush this trade. I could be completely wrong and I need proof. As it stands, this is still...
10:50:56 Pete	The contrarian in me sees a nice long red candle into the gap from Tues. That will trigger a few sell stops, but not many since only one touch. I will attract shorts and the move lower from that breakdown...
10:52:39 Pete	These are just my current thoughts about the price action this week/today and a scenario I would like to unfold, but that might not.
11:01:07 Pete	This is NOT the type of 1OP bullish cross I like because barely below 0. I would like to see the SPY make one more move lower and drive 1OP down. Then bullish hammer/bullish engulf.
11:09:16 Pete	We has a similar instance last week where Wed looked great and we rallied all day (just like Tues). Thurs we gave that all back and then some. The difference is that the market tanked in the first hour and...
11:12:45 Pete	Long ES 3743 1/2
11:13:06 Pete	I will add above $372.30
11:15:00 Pete	This bounce is going on 40 min which is longer than we like to see from bearish standpoint. The longer we sit, the greater the chance of at least a bounce. Combined with wimpy drop and the other context I...
11:18:06 Pete	Long ES 3746 1/2
11:18:28 Pete	If we get above the halfway point of the long red candle, I will go 2X
11:18:45 Pete	That has to happen quickly
11:22:11 Pete	I don't know if we will get the pattern I highlighted pre-open, but right now it is going according to plan. The bonus is that we took out the lod from Tues which will provide fuel for the bounce when...
11:22:59 harkren	I will say it in case anyone is thinking and unsure, if you are not a consistently profitable trader you should not be following this
11:23:51 Pete	Correct. You should however, reduce risk on shorts.
11:38:27 Pete	Long $3756
11:38:52 Pete	I have a 2X position on with 3751 ave entry
11:44:19 Pete	Don't get yourself worked into a lather. Still a lot of game to be played. If I am right, there will be time to take some swing longs so we just need to keep confirming. The long green candle to...
11:50:41 Pete	my mental stop is the open of  the long green candle. It must hold or that candle will just be a short sqz "solo"
12:07:31 Pete	I liked that red candle and this green candle.
12:11:16 Pete	We have a bearish 1OP cross, but no tech confirmation for a short and given the peak of the last spike it could cross back up and keep going higher.
12:12:18 Pete	Long ES 3770
12:14:13 Pete	3757 is my ave 3X. If the scenario plays out I intend to hold 1 or 1.5X overnight and I will have a low ave entry price
12:16:27 Pete	There are times to trade passively (most of this year) and there are times to step up. Only you can determine when those odds surface. For me, this is one of those moments. I do NOT suggest you follow me,...
12:34:10 Pete	I want ES 3762 to hold. I have a large position on. I want to give it room, but I will NOT let it get away from me.
12:42:14 Pete	Nothing is ever easy in this market. Constant retracements. 1OP is not much help today. Lots of mini crosses which we can see in the mixed candles and overlap. For me today was a test. Was yesterday a complete fake...
12:45:55 Pete	If you look at the D1 chart of SPY right now you will see that tail this morning gets us to the half way point of yesterday's long green candle. It has been preserved. A rally and close into positive...
12:48:09 Zander	Isn't the long green candle from yesterday a bad print? (Sorry meant to send that all in one message)
12:49:06 Pete	@Zander my bad. yes it is.
12:50:07 Pete	@Zander I was looking more at the distance from the close Mon to the close Tues
12:57:31 Pete	We are  in the gap  today and we have a strong pattern setting up.  I have NOT been encouraging swings for a long time (most of the year), but the table is set for a meaningful bounce for at least...
13:01:44 Pete	1OP M30 has been spot on and it is still in a bullish 1OP cycle. H1just completed a bullish div and it has a bullish 1OP cross. As far as I am concerned I have tech confirmation across multiple time...
13:02:24 Pete	Last sentence was M5 basis
13:19:00 Pete	We are not even getting a bearish cycle in here. 1OP has not been < 0 all day and that is bullish.
13:34:15 Pete
13:36:15 Snakebight	@Pete Before considering swings, should we wait for the results of tomorrow's jobless claims report, or was the ADP report insightful enough (along with the technicals you are looking at)?
13:36:21 Pete	Will this bounce last a couple of days or a couple of weeks? Don't know, don't care. In this market I will be long gone. I do expect at least one more day of positive price action.
13:38:22 Pete	@Snakebight Let this bearish 1OP cycle complete. See how far we retrace. Look for strong D1 charts and stocks that did not pullback. Enter the trade on the next bullish cross. This is all standard fare. If you have nice gains,...
13:40:09 Pete	The one thing you will notice about the boxes I highlighted is that ALL of them gapped up overnight. Is that going to happen this time? I have no @#$% clue. I only know that the odds favor it.
13:42:34 Pete	If this is the market I believe it is, it will hold the gains well during this bearish cycle. I am expecting that and watching for it.
13:59:35 Pete	SPY $375 is a level I want to hold.
14:04:33 Pete	Bearish hammers off of the hod are always tough to hold thru especially when  you have had a day trading mentality most of the year. I knew I was going to take heat, but I am looking for more upside...
14:12:04 Pete	SPY bull flag likely here.
14:15:03 Pete	When we do get this bullish cross I want to see this cycle take us to the hod from Tues and ideally thru. That would really get buyers going. We still do not have that cross but we should get...
14:29:20 Pete	We have the M5 bullish 1OP cross but as you know, I would like the blue line to flatten out. I expect that in a couple of bars. All told, the SPY weathered that speedbump well and I am expecting...
14:36:03 Pete	Pretty fair resistance at the hod and I am watchful of a double top. The fact that we have shouldered a bear cycle and that we have a bullish cross is giving me confidence to hold. Plus the other factors....
14:36:08 Pete	There we go
14:42:51 Pete	The 1OP blue line flattened out and the red line crossed back down. This bullish cross will be much more to my liking.
14:43:27 Pete	A good bull cross is pending.
14:52:04 Pete	Heavy resistance at the high from Tues. If we can't clear it today I will take gains. My suspicion is that we are going to blow thru it
14:52:40 Pete	We are finally getting a decent bullish 1OP cross
15:01:36 Pete	This has the potential to be one heck of a bullish cycle now that we are thru the hod from Tues.
15:06:42 Andreas	@Pete That was one heck of a trade! congratulations... that was amazing to watch...
15:12:22 Pete	@Andreas TY. I outline many scenarios each day including the ones that I would most want to see (biggest potential) and the ones that are most likely. Unfortunately, I don't often get the ones that have the biggest potential. Today I...
15:17:18 Pete	For months I have not been trading much because of projects I am working on. I have been itching to trade. After my fishing trip I saw a pattern I liked last week and I took an overnight long. I...
15:20:00 Pete	I never worry about taking losses because that new information provides me with keen insight and I know I will make that money back and then some.
15:25:29 Pete	Offering ES 3817 2X. I am ready to take gains here and leave 1X on
15:28:25 Pete	I will let the next 30 min play out and I plan to take 1X overnight.
15:29:49 Pete	Exit ES 3812 all. That was 55 pt gain on 3X
15:30:41 Pete	Why would you exit if you plan to hold 1X overnight? Because it feels damn good
15:32:53 Pete	Folks look at the D1 chart. There is room for an overnight bullish swing here. We might not want to hold over into the jobs report, but I feel we will open higher Thurs
15:38:12 Pete	I Would like to see more volume, but after heavy selling this year the volume often lags. Buyers are not willing to commit until they see that confirmed support. If you look back to the July rally you will see...
15:42:36 Pete
15:44:11 Pete	You can see that the rally today had tons of mixed candles and overlap. No big dips and that was good. It was not a super strong showing of strength and this was not an incredible rally, but it did...
15:56:51 Pete	@Abie To be clear, I only swing for the fence when I have ALL of the checkboxes marked. It is rare and it should be rare for all of you. Personally, I need to have an incredible entry point and instant...
15:58:32 Pete	Hari is bearish and Pete is bullish. Error on the side of caution.
15:59:35 Pete	i am bidding $3790 for 1X
16:01:18 Pete	Yes as we used to say on the floor "i'm wearin em".
16:01:31 Pete	Long ES  3790 1X
16:09:27 Pete	st0rm wrote: Question @Pete why hold SPY/ES at the top of the day as it pulls back instead of selling and re-buying when you get another clear entry signal?Because it was not the top of the day when you posted the...
16:09:53 Pete
16:11:28 Pete	Andreas wrote: Question @Pete Curious why the 3762 to hold?At the time that was the open from a green candle that should have provided support.
16:17:47 Pete	That question about taking gains at the hod was legitimate if I was looking at a typical day with price movement that was all over the board. In that case I would have taken gains. This was different. I had...
16:19:02 st0rm	@Pete great answer! Sometimes the worst thing is losing your position, right?
16:19:58 Pete	Yes. If you are looking for a bigger move and all of the checkboxes remain marked, weather those little speedbumps and stay the course.
16:50:43 Pete
17:05:59 Pete	To further Hari's comment, yes I am very bullish for this tiny moment in time and I am much more bullish over this time frame than he is. I don't know the duration of this slice, but I do know...
17:17:12 Hariseldon	From GS: "Today's stock rise is also being accompanied by a rise in the VIX. The index of market volatility is sitting close to 30 after dipping below 20 back in August. This is perhaps the most enduring thing to...
17:18:12 Pete	@Hariseldon I believe that GS year end target is 3600. That might include a drop below that and late rally back to it