Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-18

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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07:17:06
Pete
Good morning. We should see another leg higher in /ES. Bullish cross and holding overnight high. Long green candle M5 holding after testing half way point. 
07:17:33
Pete
Long ES 3985 1/2 position
07:27:01
Pete
I only did a half position because the SPY is at the overnight high
07:31:05
Pete
Irelia wrote: Question @Pete In this article: https://oneoption.com/the-system/market-first/long-term-technical/price-action/applying-our-lessons-1/ you mentioned at point 7 that  "as long as the mid-point of the long red candle is preserved for a few days we can take short swing positions". Isn't the mid-point already violated since both green...
07:32:00
Pete
Thanks for providing the link to the article. It helps those who reference this question and it helped me pin point your question.
07:46:04
Pete
07:47:27
Pete
That was what I was leaning on. If /ES does not advance in the next 10 min I will exit. I was looking for follow thru and we have stalled.
07:48:45
Pete
Right now we are testing the mid point of the long green candle. OK with that, but it needs to hold. 
08:00:32
Pete
Exit $3982.50. That was a 2.5 pt loss on 1/2 position. I am losing the mid point of the green candle and 1OP crossed back down. 
08:01:37
Pete
Had to repost. Typo on price. 3982.5 not 3882.5
08:03:45
Pete
I also did not get the movement I wanted. If we get a bulllish cross in here and hold this price I will consider re-entering. No econ releases at 8:30 AM of importance so would hold thru that time. Most...
08:04:44
Pete
@JayP 1OP does very well catching those moves. The last few weeks I have posted trades pre-open
08:06:04
Pete
I missed this move by a couple of minutes. I do like the breakout and 1OP still has not crossed so I am bidding lower
08:06:25
Pete
It will cross soon in here.
08:08:34
Pete
Long ES 3988 1/2 position
08:24:41
Pete
08:26:05
Pete
Offering ES 4000
09:09:19
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – Since the breakout a week ago on a lighter than expected CPI, the volume has dried up. The SPY checked the 100-day MA yesterday and that support level held. This morning the S&P 500 is...
09:10:27
Pete
Exit ES 3988 for scratch. 
09:21:27
Pete
09:23:37
Pete
Idan wrote: Question Hi. I'm experiencing two issues with One Option Pro. 1) I'd like to use 1OP, 1OSi, and 1OSqz on all my M5 charts. I saved this as a "default" chart for SPY, but when I go to load...
09:41:44
Pete
Two long red candles closing on their low to start the day. That is bearish and it tells us that sellers are smacking this move down. 1OP is close to rolling over. Another long red candle would suggest the gap...
10:07:10
Pete
Short ES 3962
10:14:00
Pete
There is some overlap and retracement on this gap. That means I am not expecting a meltdown. 1OP bear cycle is just starting so favor the short side and expect a gap fill. If we get through the another 20...
10:15:05
Pete
Volume is ave during this gap fill and that means I can trust the move.
10:26:49
Pete
LMT is a nice long. Good rel str and bull flag D1 likely
10:27:52
Pete
CSCO follow thru on D1 breakout and > 200-day MA
10:29:00
Pete
Exit ES 2 pt gain $3960
10:29:33
Pete
We filled the gap and I do prefer the long side. 
10:31:20
Pete
I am going to wait for 1OP to see if it flattens out and possibly crosses bullish. Seeing some tails here and signs of support.
10:40:13
Pete
Not my kind of stock,  but ARDX strong ($2 stock). Heavy volume
10:41:46
Pete
We are getting a 1OP cross. Blue (dotted) line still falling so will wait for that to flatten out. The gap was filled and we are seeing signs of support
10:44:29
Pete
RYAN in D1 gap with room to 200-day. I don't like the D1 chart for swing, but could be good day trade. M5 heavy volume
10:53:05
Pete
I am going to record a video. LMT and CSCO are favs. I believe we are going to get a bounce here. 1OP ready to cross. The half-way point of the last red candle is holding. I want to clear...
11:19:49
Pete
Long ES 3968
11:38:14
Pete
Exit ES 3968. Scratch. This is light volume right now.  I needed the move higher and I did not get it. 
11:39:46
Pete
I did the trade during the video. It should be posted soon. I needed follow thru on that last green candle. If we sit at the top of those long candles for 3 bars without follow thru they retrace.
11:40:45
Pete
@lilsgymdan Perfect.
11:43:38
Pete
With the exception of the first candle today, the long candles have something in common. Every one of them had retracement. Most of them were completely retraced. 
11:44:30
Pete
That tells you that if there is a long candle, don't chase it. You will have a better entry when it retraces if you still favor that side. 
11:45:50
Pete
I have two articles to finish my long term market analysis section. 1OP and volume. I think I will work on those today. Then I can start on the short term market technicals section. 
12:13:35
Pete
CCLXII wrote: Question @Pete It looks like the dotted line is flat with the solid line riding above it. Does that mean a significant 1OP bearish cross? Or less significant because
12:46:16
Pete
Idan wrote: Question When is it fair to say a bearish divergence confirms on SPY? The bullish 1OP failed to produce, and SPY broke out of compression to the downside with a red dot on 1OSqz. Is the red dot a...
13:03:18
Pete
13:10:02
Pete
13:11:58
Pete
CLICK HERE TO WATCH TODAY'S VIDEO
14:54:21
Pete
Will and I have been testing the new version without crashes. There are many things to test and having more people on it would help. There are a lot of moving parts related to saving workspaces, pop-ups and all of...
14:59:40
Pete
There is a new 1OStudy study (Key Bars) and a new study in All Studies (LRSI). If you do the beta you can check them out.  
15:02:23
Pete
This is a pretty big stepping stone for us because it provides us with more flexibility to build other components. For all of you it is a major PITA to have to configure OSP each day so we wanted to...
15:04:56
Pete
This breakout looks good just like the  others. There is no #$%^ volume so you can't trust it
15:20:25
Pete
This is a poor backdrop for lottos. If anything I would favor the short side
15:51:42
Pete
Labyrintho wrote: Question SPY max pain is 385 today on Nov expiration.  Given that SPY is more than 11 points above, does max pain have any impact at all today?  I think of it is only mattering when it's close.No. It...
15:55:29
Pete
Tick, tick, tick higher.... blam. shut the door.
15:57:00
Pete
The D1 chart is setting the tone here. Since the CPI rally we've done nothing and the volume has dried up.
16:04:20
Pete
Very light news week next week. 
16:05:43
Pete
[email protected] Send us an email if you want to beta test the new version.
16:06:13
Pete
I think it is working fine, but I want to make sure. 
16:14:52
Pete
Get ready for more of this low volume chop next week. The holiday will really slow things down. 
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