Daily Market Analysis

2022-11-29

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:30:04
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – From a technical standpoint the SPY is resting between the 100-day MA and the 200-day MA and the volume is extremely light. Year-end seasonal strength has produced a wimpy little bounce that can quickly be...
09:30:19
Pete
Good morning. 
10:05:34
Pete
I would like to see the lod from Mon hold during this bearish 1OP cycle. I don't want to see any organized selling or red bars thru the lod. If the lod holds, I would start considering the long side...
10:07:28
Pete
Know that I do not have a directional bias. I simply believe that the chop will continue. Once we test the downside and rest, we are likely to test the upside. After we test the upside we are likely to...
10:22:08
Pete
FYI I have GTC alerts below FXI. I am looking to re-enter that short. The higher it goes the better. I will keep placing my alerts at higher levels. My thesis is that China is the weakest link and if...
10:23:03
Pete
For today, trade what is in front of you. Chinese stocks are strong
10:28:20
Pete
I am liking SPY here. 
10:28:59
Pete
Long ES 3977
10:37:58
Pete
Why buy SPY here when 1OP is still in a bearish cycle? I got the wimpy bid check I was looking for and the low from Mon held. 1OP was in a bear cross for about 30 min and the...
11:08:37
Pete
I am ready to stop out on ES. I won't go short on a new lod until I see follow thru
11:12:20
Pete
Exit ES 3756 21 pt loss. 
11:15:19
Pete
Two long red candles thru the lod. This looks pretty good on the short side. I still want to see follow thru to make sure this is not a head fake. I am market neutral so I am willing to...
11:29:33
Pete
Right now I am watching the open from the last long red candle and the halfway point. I am not overly anxious to take a position after that loss. I need to make sure that I don't piss capital away...
11:41:59
Pete
If the SPY can clear the open from the long red candle, I have a bullish 1OP cross pending that I can lean on. I would still need to see steady progress to get back to the lod from Mon....
11:43:40
Pete
Quite different from a short standpoint. I would need to see the bullish cycle run without much of a move higher in SPY. If much of the move below the low from Mon is preserved during that bullish cycle, I...
11:49:05
Pete
Tough market for sure. Low volume compressions are the worst and we have been in one since the Nov 10th CPI rally.
11:52:36
Pete
The best volume of the day came on the drop and I am aware of that. 
11:55:39
Pete
To convince me that this drop was just a shakeout I need to see nice long green candles and some speed recovering the lod from Mon. That is the only way I would consider a long. If I don't get...
12:05:53
Pete
Very tenuous recovery off of the lod. Tiny candles. We did get back above the open from the last long red candle, but not a convincing bounce
12:21:55
Pete
This little bounce has stalled. Not very impressive. Tiny bodied candles and barely got thru the open from the last long red candle. Still waiting, but more bearish than bullish
12:50:09
Pete
I am not impressed with this bounce. Mixed overlapping candles and tiny bodies. This is nothing I would want to buy. I needed to see buyers aggressively snap up /ES at the lod. That did not happen. Could the market...
12:58:12
Pete
Bulls need a green candle right here. We are spending too much time trying to advance past the last long green candle. The longer it takes the more likely this bounce is to fail. If they get the green candle,...
13:09:44
Pete
I am waiting for the 1OP bearish cross and we should have it in the next 2-3 bars. I am looking to short. $394.40 is a level I am watching
13:18:18
Pete
Short ES 3954
13:23:36
Pete
1OP M15 is in a bear cycle. 1OP M5 is going to have a bear cross here. The volume has been on the downside today and that was a very wimpy bounce off of the lod. Sellers are going to...
13:25:44
Pete
I would like to see $395 preserved. Given the price action, I am not overly concerned about a blow off rally. If that was possible then we would have seen a much faster recovery off of the lod. 
13:42:16
Pete
Exit ES 3953 1 pt gain. I don't want to add to my first mistake on a light volume day so I am going to exit. and wait. I was hoping for better downside action
14:02:31
Pete
Long ES 3965
14:03:11
Pete
Double bottom higher low, 1OP bullish cross and we are > lod from Mon
14:05:44
Pete
SPY $395.25 is a stop level I am watching. no stop order working. I am just in the start of the bull cycle so I want to give it a little room. 
14:07:23
Pete
This is a choppy garbage day. If I don't get follow thru in 20 min I will be out.  
14:38:18
Pete
Exit ES $3955 for 10 pt loss. 
14:40:16
Pete
This is complete shit. I got busy and thought I would just check the position in 20 min. I would let the market wiggle and jiggle around. Once we had the higher low and we were thru the lod from...
14:42:50
Pete
The next time you see an /ES trade from me 1OVol will be squarely > 0 and I will make money. 
16:02:37
Pete
In 30 years one thing has not changed. I hate losing money. I hate losing money much more than I enjoy making money. My mistake was trading a shitty market. I need to engrain good trading habits and you deserver...
16:06:38
Pete
When the market is trapped in a range and the volume is light I won't be posting intraday comments. There is nothing to report when buyers and sellers are paired off. I will be posting pre-open market comments as always....
16:15:02
Pete
Jeff L. wrote: The 5 min did a classic bear flag pattern on SPY today between 10:50 - 11:50, right? then it just wandered around. Is that just nonsense because of low volume?That bear flag came and went in 20...
16:18:33
Pete
DanielF wrote: I realize this is meaningless speculation/chatter and won't make a difference in my trading, but will Powell's speech tomorrow really make any difference?  I realize the market will move up or down based on whatever and we need...
17:48:30
Pete
Hariseldon wrote: As I mentioned before, and I am sure Dave and Pete agree - this is the most difficult market I have ever trader - period. No contest, 100% - The. Worst.  So you are training in that environment - and...
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