Daily Market Analysis

2022-12-16

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

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09:32:32
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The market has been in a steady decline since the 200-day MA was breached Tuesday. Major technical levels have failed and the S&P 500 is down 40 points overnight. The Fed is steadfast in taming...
09:34:15
Pete
Good Morning!
09:41:51
Pete
There are so many breakdowns and so many stocks to choose from. How do I do that? Normally, you will look for a major MA breach, a horizontal support fail or an up trendline breach. Right now, you want stocks...
09:43:32
Pete
You do not want stocks with herky jerky M5 price action. IBM, NUE, NFLX. Those were the poster children yesterday. If it does not look like that.... keep looking
09:47:04
Pete
SPY trying to hold the bid. We are in a bullish cycle just like yesterday. If we can't get into the gap as the cycle completes, we are going to test the downside.
09:52:42
Pete
We are getting a little lift in SPY and it is in the gap. That is good. This buys us time to monitor possible shorts. We do not have to hurry with our entry
09:57:58
Pete
watching that last green SPY candle. If it fails quickly we will test the lod. 1OP not crossing yet. Don't anticipate. Wait for it and wait for tech confirmation. For all we know we will fill the gap at this...
10:02:12
Pete
Short ES 3898 1/2 position
10:03:12
Pete
Will add other half on new lod. We took out the open from the green candle with ease. 1OP cross in next bar
10:06:06
Pete
Short ES 3892 
10:06:26
Pete
Ave is $3895
10:10:29
Pete
/ES stop at entry. The price action is weak D1 and M5. I have a good entry and I want to give it lots of room. Yes I could take nice gains here, but I believe we could have a...
10:20:47
Pete
As long as prior long red candles are preserved operate as if bear trend day. If we start seeing lots of retracement it means the selling pressure is starting to soften and that support is forming. We want a steady...
10:26:35
Pete
$3870 bid ES for 1/2. Low ball bid in case we get a long red candle. 
10:29:25
Pete
Getting some mixed candles here. I want that last red candle preserved on SPY M5. I am looking to take some gains on /ES and I want that drop.
10:30:05
Pete
Again, need to be much more cautious trading /ES than with stock
10:32:51
Pete
bidding $3870 for all of position on /ES
10:34:01
Pete
Exit ES 25 pt gain entire position
10:35:20
Pete
Market still looks weak. I was happy with those gains... so I took them. 
10:41:53
Pete
1OP is in a deep trough. If you like taking profits along the way and the stock has a bullish 1OP cross and it is starting to gain rel str, this is a good place to take gains. 
10:42:39
Pete
If you are longer term bearish and you want to ride the trade on the notion that this is going to be a bear trend day (good theory), know that you are going to take a little heat along the...
10:59:32
Pete
We want an elephant to sit on this chart during the bullish 1OP cycle. then the next bearish cycle should produce
11:05:16
Pete
I am going to step away for 20 min. That will get us thru some of this bullish cycle. I would not be doing much during it anyway
11:24:59
Pete
That last green candle is looking like a "solo". See how easily it is being given up?
11:42:33
Pete
This bullish SPY cycle has run and the market has not moved. The next bearish cycle should be a good one. 
11:44:08
Pete
You don't have to worry about a big market bounce with your shorts. The lack of movement tells you there is selling pressure. Just focus on the stock price action. As far as trading /ES, I am not inclined to...
11:49:48
Pete
Everybody back in the pool. Here comes the next leg down.
11:59:48
Pete
We are all getting coal in our stockings this year. No Santa Claus rally>
12:02:28
Pete
When the market is soft in Nov and Dec it is a warning sign. 
12:08:33
Pete
Very compressed price action during this bear cycle. That tells me we could be close to the lod. Maybe we have another 10 pts, but not much more room. This could be a repeat of Thurs. We get one more...
12:08:34
Hariseldon
Just stopping in - a minor note, but something to be aware - you can go back and look at the various Fed speakers and the market reaction to them - you will see a trend, some speakers are more...
12:11:02
Pete
@Hariseldon Love it. Paying attention to details. This is like Belichick knowing which officials are calling the game. 
12:29:53
Pete
The market is not going anywhere. There is a downward bias so favor that side and use the 1OP cycles as a guide. I would reduce downside exposure for day trades. I don't feel you will get much help from...
14:15:48
Pete
Hanshanot wrote: @Pete Could an end of the year rally still happen ? I've never been active during winter season, except for this oneGiven the weak price action on this bounce that started in October and the heavy selling the last...
14:37:01
Pete
Most of the triple witch activity is done. These institutions have to move size and they can't wait for the last minute. They will unwind much of the week. There could still be some action into the close per normal.
15:36:58
Pete
This is a nice bounce, but I don't have a clear sense of which way the market can go. Given the recent selling pressure I am more inclined to look for a put lotto. LULU $320 worth watching for $.40....
15:38:34
Pete
Every one of these green candles has retraced the previous candle so this is not a strong move. 
15:44:57
Pete
1OP diving after barely crossing zero. Late in the day on a triple witch. I am not going to trade
15:45:10
Pete
I do feel a lotto on the short side might be setting up.
15:45:58
Pete
I still like those LULU $320 puts for $.15
15:47:06
Pete
The action next week is going to really slow down. There is no news and we will be in holiday mode. 
16:07:12
Pete
Heading into a holiday you should expect dull trading. That means you reduce positions, not increase them with hedges. The best strategy is to go to cash. Carry very few positions and try to make a little money during the...
16:07:45
Pete
If you see something special (doubtful), take an overnight - small
16:08:12
Pete
I am referring to taking an overnight if you see something special next week, not now
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