2023-01-12

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09:29:57 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – If you strip out the August highs and the September lows, the market has been trading in a range between SPY $370 and $410 for the last nine months and it is right in the...
09:32:59 Pete	1OStudies. Add key bars to your charts. They are very helpful. When you see one, stick with that direction. If the open from that key bar is breached, go the other way. Look at this relationship on charts that you...
09:34:45 Pete	There was a bearish key bar for SPY at 1:50 yesterday. When the market rallied above the open of it that was bullish.
09:35:32 Pete	The key bar prior to that was bullish. As long as those opens from the key bar are preserved, go with it. If they fail, reverse.
09:36:24 Pete	Fist bar today is a bearish key bar. Favor the short side until we can rise above it
09:38:24 Pete	Do you notice any other key bars on M5 charts for SPY in the last 20 days? What did the market do after that bar? Was the reversal of any use? Great traders would go back and test the variable.
09:51:15 Pete	Be short. Bearish start and two long red candles.
09:51:51 Pete	First support is the low from Wed and then the 100-day MA
10:10:47 Marc R	2 bearish key bars then 2 bullish key bars on SPY is a good reason to not trade in the first hour
10:12:24 Pete	@Marc R Exactly. Let's see if this 1OP bear cross can produce
10:20:05 Pete	This is bullish price action. If not for 1OP spiking I would be buying. Instead I am going to wait patiently and watch some of this bear cycle
10:28:22 Hariseldon	SPY 200 SMA has been a rally-killer for the entirety of this Bear Market - it is right above - just an fyi when thinking about longs
10:29:58 Pete	@Hariseldon Yes and that D1 wedge is providing resistance above it as well.
10:36:10 Pete
10:37:14 Pete	The bad news is that everything is converging and the action is going to tighten up. The good news is that one way or the other THIS BABY IS GOING TO BLOW!
10:46:26 Pete	1. Market is just under the 200-day MA. 2. Lots of volatility today. 3. 1OP bearish cycle. There is no reason to get long until this cycle plays out. If the market stays tight to the hod, that is bullish....
10:47:19 Pete	Could not even type that up fast enough. There is a red key bar off of the hod.
10:47:45 Pete	LOL. The whole chart today is key bars. Don't think I have seen that in a while
10:48:20 Pete	Normally you will see bars like this after an FOMC and not anywhere else
10:50:21 Pete	They still have value because they help you see the volatility on volume. As Marc R pointed out earlier when you see them mixed like this it means stay away
10:58:26 Pete	I wrote about today's action in Market/Technical Analysis/Short-term/Volume
11:05:53 Pete	There is no ES trade in here for me. Too volatile. I believe it might be some time before we know which way we go. An M5 wedge is likely to form and then we will breakout. That might take...
11:06:45 Pete	Given that opinion, I would not worry too much about the market here. If you have a stock that is on a mission, trade it.
12:08:12 Pete	Long ES 1/2 4000
12:09:38 Pete	I like that we are making a new hod at the beginning of the bullish cycle.   I am mindful of the overhead resistance at the 200-day and the volatility. That is why only 1/2 position.
12:10:50 Pete	The early gap up was slapped down and we went through an early bid check (red key bars). Support was confirmed and since then we have been making higher lows. The volume has been decent today.
12:15:58 Pete	Roughly 4 pts from 200-day MA. I want to blow through it. If we do, I will add the other half
12:20:14 Pete	$4001 stop. Here we go. Let's see if we can blast thru. I think we will and I have the buy order loaded
12:20:42 Pete	Volume good as we try
12:25:37 Pete	Here is my strategy. $4010 buy stop for 1/2 working order. If filled $4005 stop for entire position (my ave entry price).  That will get me into the trade if we are well thru and give me a little wiggle...
12:26:33 Pete	Back to work. Not really watching the market. Set alert and that got me back to watching.
12:28:20 Pete	Long 1/2 ES 4010. Ave price $4005. stop working at $4005. That is my ave entry price. Cancelled stop at 4001.
12:28:42 Pete	Be long
12:33:32 Pete	We have lots of time left in the day. If we hold the 200-day MA for 30 min+ this is likely to turn into a nice bullish trend day.
13:02:00 Pete	Exit ES 4010 5 pt gain
13:03:38 Pete	I can re-enter and I will. Just want to make sure we breakout. 1OP dipped and need to see bullish cross. We are spending more time than I would like at this level.
13:04:30 Pete	We make a new hod and we get a bullish cross I have no issue re-entering.
13:05:16 Pete	We want to attack these resistance levels, not play patty cake with them.
13:11:10 Pete	This 1OP dip has some speed to it and it could keep going down. That is why I am watching from the sidelines. Market has not been able to follow thru and 1OP is telling us to be cautious here....
13:13:14 Pete	If you bought the breakout and you are in strong stocks, take some off. We did not attack the 200-day and we did not have follow thru. You should still have gains or scratch on strong stocks. You gave it...
13:16:08 Pete	You might miss some gains this way, but you will not have the rug pulled out from under you when the breakout fails. When bullish specs bail the market will drop quickly. That is what you want to avoid at...
13:17:39 Pete	Long ES $4017 full
13:17:58 Pete	$4012 stop.
13:24:50 Pete	No question today has been a battle ground. Early on big swings on heavy volume. Bulls won the first battle and we inched up to the 200-day MA. Very tight price compression and heavy volume. We are going to break...
13:26:27 Pete	Exit ES 4012 on a stop. Now we know. 5 pt loss. That puts me even on the day.
13:28:22 Pete	When you have a bunch of stock positions on you have to lighten up on the backdrop I provided. It takes too long to do it once the move happens. That is one of the few advantages of trading /ES....
13:29:37 Pete	This is the drop I was referencing and this is bullish specs getting flushed out. This is also why you want to attack those resistance levels and not poke at them.
13:30:11 Pete	If it takes too long to see follow thru the odds of a breakout decrease with each M5 bar.
13:31:44 Pete	I felt like 1OP was starting to bottom out and it was not. I was willing to risk what I had made  earlier and I had my stop working.
13:32:33 Pete	Bad trade. Should have followed my own advice and waited for the 1OP bullish cross.
13:34:21 Pete	Now that a breakout attempt has failed,  I am really getting back to work. That was a one hour diversion and I did not make any money on the trades.
13:56:09 Pete	Long ES 4017 full
13:56:54 Pete	That was a big head fake to trigger sell stops and the move reversed instatntly. Now we have a new hod and a running start. Plus bullish 1OP cross.
14:05:13 Pete	I have a stop at $4010. I feel good about the trade, but turning my trade monitors off. Willing to take the 7 pt risk on the notion a breakout above the 200-day will yield more than that. Watching this...
16:02:38 Pete	Exit ES at $4010 for a 7 pt loss on a stop.
16:04:37 Pete	As is often the case, the price in the first 30-40 minutes was a big clue on how the day would go. Long key bars in both directions and the battle waged on during the day.
16:06:59 Pete	I believe that the major MAs in here are just bait to lure in traders. The crosses mean very little as they converge. The D1 wedge is much more significant.
16:08:59 Pete	Izzy wrote: /ES ended up above its 200ma, but SPY closed below.  Is this difference significant?Question No. With the moving averages converging in a tight price range I believe you can ignore these crosses. Focus on the D1 wedge.
16:25:19 Pete	I got the initial poke at the 200-day MA and the fail when it had no follow thru. That was a giant "solo" to shake out longs. The way that the market recovered with those stacked green candles on volume...
16:30:50 Pete	We are moving through the 100-day and 200-day MA with regularity and that means we should not give them much consideration. Be mindful of where they are intraday because the price action around them will be impacted, but be very...
16:33:49 Pete	Regarding banks, earnings should be good. People have jobs and that should reduce bad loan write downs. Higher interest rates are good for bank profits and economic growth is stable. The XLF is near a relative high for this reason....