Daily Market Analysis
2023-01-30
Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.
Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).
All Comments
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| 09:28:37 Pete | PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – This is going to be a very important week. Earnings and interest rates drive the market and we are going to hear from META, AAPL, AMZN and GOOG this week. We are also going to... |
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| 09:29:18 Pete | Good morning! |
| 09:38:24 Pete | Is the open the lod? So far, yes. Now we need more green candles. Still way too early to tell. |
| 09:48:36 Pete | Now we know to favor the long side. This gap is likely to fill. |
| 09:52:13 Pete | Does this mean I have to be super aggressive with my buys? Pete said the gap will fill. No, there is retracement and a red candle in the first 15 min. Not a super strong move, but an upward bias. |
| 09:59:39 Pete | Now that red candle we just saw serves as a reminder that we are not going straight up and filling the gap. Like I said, no need to be aggressive, know that the bid is decent. Pick your points. This... |
| 10:01:10 Pete | Those of you who are just returning with your fresh cup of coffee - well done. Now you have something to look at. |
| 10:33:40 Pete | After an hour we know the bid is fairly secure. The first bar was the lod and we have not tested it today. we are back above the lod from Fri and we have a bullish 1OP cross. There are... |
| 10:35:23 Pete | If this bullish cycle runs and we do not get any kind of lift, you have to be more cautious. That could be a sign that the next bearish cycle will produce. Until then, expect that support will hold and... |
| 10:43:53 Pete | So far you will notice similarities for M5 SPY. This is exactly the early pattern we got Friday. Rally early, test the bid, find support, grind higher. I don't know that it will repeat, but the idea is that both... |
| 10:48:01 Pete | We have to tread cautiously with longs here. The lod just failed and this was a pretty good attack on it. |
| 10:51:24 Pete | In the context of the choppy trading we should expect (big news pending and mixed candles today), you will get a chance regardless of which side you favor. You just have to be patient and wait your turn. |
| 11:53:25 Pete | Lower high, benign 1OP bullish cycle and testing the lod again. This bearish cycle could produce and we might see a new lod here. There was not a big bounce and that suggests that sellers were fairly active. I would... |
| 12:00:04 Pete | Right here I would be watching to see if this is a short sqz "solo". If it is instantly hammered down, this could be the impetus we need to take out the lod on this bearish cross. |
| 12:02:03 Pete | If it is not hammered down you have to be patient with shorts and see if there is follow up to the upside. This is going to be a choppy session and we already know that. |
| 12:03:18 Pete | Phradeus wrote: that was a alow volume bounceYes. With the exception of a few bars today, it is all low volume. We can see that in 1OVol on SPY |
| 12:09:24 Pete | If the last green candle is a "solo" it will typically be hammered down in 2-3 bars so you do not have to wait long to know |
| 12:14:36 Pete | Hariseldon wrote: If this week results in a bullish move that takes us above resistance it would be a good time to start looking at doing OTM Bullish Put SpreadsAgree. I have added a search that looks for golden crosses... |
| 12:17:52 Pete | If this is a red candle, you can start to take small shorts when we get < half of the green candle. When below the open of the green candle add. I would not get more aggressive than that. We... |
| 12:26:52 Pete | Now we can see that that long green candle was a "solo". |
| 12:30:51 Pete | The faster they get hammered down, the better they are for shorting. That is a sign that sellers are anxious to short bounces. When they take a while to reverse, they are still a sign that there is more downside,... |
| 12:35:00 Pete | This is a wimpy move lower and I believe that there will be a good window to buy. It could come on a lod. You want to watch for that shakeout and for the stops to be triggered. We do... |
| 12:35:33 Pete | That is your game plan. This is low odds hit and run stuff and that is how you plan your trades. I am going to do some writing. |
| 12:39:35 Pete | Hariseldon wrote: In other news, Kristen and I are very much looking forward to hosting @Pete this Wednesday ! The BBQ will be fired up, wine opened, and stocks discussed!Long overdue. Thank you for having me. |
| 12:54:50 Pete | If you get a nice long red candle in here at least take partial profits on shorts. If you don't see follow thru and a new lod 3 bars after that candle or if we lose half of that red... |
| 12:56:59 Pete | In situations like this I will often put a low ball bid out there at a price I would be happy with. Often the price will not be there long and if you do not have the order working, you... |
| 14:28:22 Pete | At this stage the chance of a full blown late day meltdown is unlikely. Sellers have tried to knock the legs out from under the market and they have not been able to. We could still see that selling climax... |
| 14:31:06 Pete | When I say "best", it is the one we can make decent money on. A gradual drift lower has limited downside and the risk of a short covering candle is high. That is a poor trading scenario today so that... |
| 14:37:59 Pete | I just gave you a great set-up. See if it materializes. It may or may not, but it is the only one I would be interested in given the price action and light volume |
| 16:12:20 Pete | Have a great night everyone. I will keep my eyes out for new comments later, but going to keep writing |