Strong Economic Numbers Are Putting Upward Pressure On Interest Rates

May 5, 2021

Posted 9:30 AM ET – Yesterday the market tested support and the selling pressure was relatively contained. On a daily chart you can see that we have not moved much in the last three weeks and the market is consolidating after a big run in April. Strong earnings reports have not been able to fuel the next leg of the rally and this week we will see if strong economic releases provide a boost.

This morning we learned that 742,000 new jobs were created in the private sector during the month of April (ADP) this is slightly less than the 800,000 jobs that were projected, but it is a very strong number. Initial jobless claims have been declining and that bodes well for Friday’s Unemployment Report. Some analysts are projecting that 1 million new jobs might’ve been created in April. ISM services will be released 30 minutes after the open today.

The Fed has stated that it will not tighten until it sees a substantial recovery in the labor market. Strong results this week will put upward pressure on yields and this morning US 10-Year Treasuries are trading lower after the ADP Report.

Earnings season has been exceptional and we are seeing the largest percentage of “beats” in a decade. Valuations are rich and these results are largely priced in. By the end of the week more than 80% of the S&P 500 companies will have reported earnings.

Swing traders should remain sidelined. I believe that we will see the bid tested again this week. Profit takers are more aggressive now that the tech giants have reported earnings. Google and Facebook have been able to preserve their earnings breakouts, but Apple, Amazon and Microsoft have breached technical support. It will be hard for the market to stage another leg higher without these mega cap tech stocks. I am not looking for a massive market drop, just a normal round of profit-taking. If the market is able to digest the recent gains and tread water at this level for another one to two weeks, I will start taking bullish positions.

Day traders should wait to see if the opening gap holds. The S&P 500 is up 17 points before the open and I believe that the bid will be tested. If the market is able to hold the early gains for the first hour of trading, we will drift higher. If we see a gradual drift lower from the opening bell, look for shorts in the tech sector. There have been excellent opportunities on both sides of the market during the day. Basic materials and healthcare have been strong and tech stocks have been week. We had an excellent range yesterday, but the price action has been very dull the last week. The market has been closing near its opening price and you can see that from the dojis on the daily chart. Trim your size and your trade count.

Support is at SPY $411 and $416.50 and resistance is at the all-time high.
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