2023-02-15

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13:00:49 Pete	Then you wait to see if it sets up. If not, you wait.
13:31:20 Pete	For that set up I referenced, I want to see a nice long green candle to turn into a bearish hammer or a nice red engulfing candle. Both well below the hod. This is not a fantastic trade, there is...
13:31:57 Pete	I don't know that this is a bull trap, we could blow right thru. I just see this as a good little set-up
13:44:57 Pete	This candle needs to have a long wick. If it does, game on. If it does not, we might not get the set-up
13:47:27 Pete	I would short at $412.40 if it happens quickly in the next 2-3 bars.
13:47:53 Pete	I have my alert set and I am going to keep writing
10:06:31 Pete	We did get the additional probe and that is why we wait. During that time, the dotted line in 1OP flattened out. It was going down and this is preferable. Now we want to see the half-way point of the...
10:24:04 Pete	$4125 bid for /ES
10:25:13 Pete	Long ES 4125
10:26:36 Pete	Offering ES 4135. If we get into the gap on this bullish cycle I will take my 10 pts and I feel the chance is pretty high given the support at the lod.
10:27:45 Pete	I want to see some progress in the next 3-4 bars. If I do not get it, we are too far into the bull cycle without any attempt at a breakout and I will exit.
10:40:27 Pete	Exit ES 4135 for 10 pt gain
10:41:11 Pete	Now I am going to turn off my screen and write. I really need to make headway on this.
11:16:40 Pete	They shift their strategies and we need to as well. Conditions are changing. @Hariseldon: It is interesting - what we are witnessing is Institutional indecision on an incredible scale here.  While it is natural to think of Institutions as the...
11:28:03 Pete	I have not done the analysis on 0 DTE SPY, but for those of you who have interest in doing so, you can see the OI and changes for each SPY strike calls and puts in Max Pain to see...
11:30:57 Pete	From my personal experience, I believe the daily expirations are mainly retail. There is OI of about 1 million on a good exp across all strikes so there is some institutional play there. The big players make markets so they...
11:32:46 Pete	They don't have any massive interest trading those other than making markets IMO. If they have a short term directional bias they will go to the futures market where they still have > 30:1 leverage and deep liquidity.
11:34:32 Pete	The institutions also do a ton of arbing with cash (baskets) vs futures and I am sure when they identify an edge (program) they will use options as part of the system.
11:35:18 Fox	@Pete the vol funds I know are focused mainly on selling tails to harvest VRP (volatility risk premium). the flip side trade is more aggressive players targeting an ill-liquid strike and forcing the tail sellers to cover violently, often by blowing...
11:37:26 Fox	last note on this -- these players are pretty niche. "small"
11:37:30 Pete	Agree. Fat tail trades happen when we move out of the 2 SD range and then it is a gamma play (squeeze).
11:39:41 Pete	Ultimately, everything that flows into the options markets is reflected in SPY/ES movement and that is why my focus has always been there.
12:08:50 Pete	The gap is filled for SPY. I am noticing that 1OP has been > 0 all day. I view that as slightly bearish
12:59:53 Pete	Slim pickins today. A set up I would watch for is an attempt to get back to the hod. That attempt needs to fail creating a double top lower high. We also want that to coincide with a bearish 1OP...
14:33:20 Pete	Did not get the set-up I was looking for earlier, but that long red candle off of the hod is a warning sign that resistance is forming.
14:36:25 Pete	This has been a nice strong rally and that means you give it extra respect. You do not short the first kink in the armor and you look for that red candle to be a "solo". If it is, it...
14:37:20 Pete	We are 5 bars passed it so it is NOT likely a "Solo". I am watching for an entry for a short.
14:40:39 Pete	Short ES 4150
14:43:48 Pete	$4155 stop.
14:51:25 Pete	If we get to $4145 I will place my stop at my entry. I am likely to place a $4140 bid if this move gains traction. That second red candle is promising.
14:55:03 Pete	Stop at entry $4150
14:55:36 Pete	No target yet
14:58:56 Pete	I don't want to really trade this. $4140 bid. I need to keep writing and on a choppy day like this I am happy to grab another 10 pts if it comes quickly
15:04:16 Pete	Exit ES 4145 for 5 pt gain
15:33:20 Pete	Long ES 4148
15:33:51 Pete	mini double bottom higher low and bullish 1OP cross
15:36:17 Pete	I am writing, I just have the SPY M5 running in the background. 1OP has been spot on
15:43:24 Pete	$4155 offer. $4143 stop
15:48:44 Pete	$4148 stop. we are near the close. That is my entry point
15:55:19 Pete	Exit ES 4149. 1 pt gain
15:58:37 Pete	There was one nice entry for a trade today. I was not watching, but if I were I would have nailed it. I will annotate a chart.
16:11:47 Pete
09:34:27 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Buyers and sellers are battling it out and we saw huge swings intraday after the CPI release. The PPI will be released Thursday. Retail sales came in better than expected this morning (3%).Let’s keep this...
09:34:51 Pete	Good morning!
09:39:26 Pete	I will get you through the open and then I am going to write my article on trendlines. This will help you when they are released.
09:40:43 Pete	1OP is in a deep trough. If we do not see early selling, I believe that the bullish cross will produce and that we will try to fill the gap.
09:42:06 Pete	How the hell can I draw that conclusion? The candles are tiny and it will not take much for us to get into the gap. We are above the prior low and we have seen two-sided price action. If sellers...
09:42:55 Pete	There you go, I can barely get my comments posted
09:44:57 Pete	You do not have to chase anything. Find your stocks as you are doing and wait for that bullish cross. We should have it in 2-3 bars. Maybe they will try to probe for support once more and that will...