Hariseldon wrote:

All that matters is the likelihood of a Recession – if there is one, then stocks are currently over-valued given the hit to earnings that would occur – if there isn’t one than stocks are fairly valued right now.  On the one hand you have excellent jobs, manufacturing, deficit numbers – all of which makes a Recession very unlikely, and on the other you have high inflation, tight job market (meaning rising wages) and a contracting GDP (which suggests stagflation).  Each argument balances the other creating an economic forecast stalemate, which is why you see the market stuck where it has been for so long.
So sell premuims. 

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