one more directional comment: if it sounds like I�m trying avoid getting sucked into the rally at this end of the range, you�re right. more so than that, I�m trying to avoid the linear trap. the market is doing the CPI relief rally — a break from over 9% to say 5% means something, and the market has rewarded that. if it hangs out around 4-5% for a while longer, however, it will be met with a restrictive Fed and I just don�t regard that as an overly friendly outcome for risk.
2. what about the Fed? I thought this was a very good check-down from GIR�s David Mericle on the big issues: link. conclusion: �the July FOMC meeting made it clear that the Fed leadership planned to slow the pace of tightening in line with our forecast for a 50bp hike in September and 25bp hikes in November and December. the July CPI report likely keeps that plan on track for now. but we see upside risk to both the near-term pace and our terminal rate forecast of 3.25-3.5% from the recent easing in financial conditions, the robust pace of hiring, and signs of stickiness in wage growth and inflation.�