is this a better environment for carry? a bit subtle, but I think the dynamics in carry strategies have improved. even if there�s still a lot of ground for the Fed to cover, relative to the unknowns of a month or two ago, the path of the hiking cycle should be less volatile now, which should truncate the tails of market distributions. the dividend trade referenced below is an equity version of this. so, too, would be vol compression strategies. I�ll defer to the experts on the Fixed Income plays to run — those I respect advocate letting some line out.
4. I don�t want to get bogged down in a discussion of market valuation. I find it�s a topic on which people have ironclad views which border on religion — if more sporting than spiritual — which I do not share. I will admit to one thought, however, which I can�t believe I�m thinking. as mentioned before, the market multiple in 2022 has largely been the photographic negative of real interest rates. note that from early March to mid-June, US 10-year real rates ripped over 100 bps in a straight line. while I think it�s highly likely that real rates rise further from here, and while noting that stocks have locally run ahead of this pattern, my guess is we won�t face a reset of that intensity again.
