Btw – I recognize there seems to be an inherent contradiction here – on the one hand we say, “Have a thesis on the market!” and on the other whenever someone asks where the market is going they get told, “Doesn’t matter, just pay attention to what is in front of you!” – So which is it?
I think the best way I can explain it would be to use a dating analogy. Let’s say you are getting ready for a 1st date – you met the person online, and based on the profile and your conversations, you have high hopes for this one. You’ve been on enough previous dates to know that these things can go wrong pretty fast, plus that time you were Catfished by a rather large and elderly Armenian man, but still this one looks good. So here you have your historical information, and your set-up that is informing how you are going into the date – hence you have formed a “thesis” about it, and because you have high hopes you dress nicer than normal, and choose a nicer place for dinner than usual for first dates – your thesis is one of optimism. Now – once you get there though, you need to pay attention to the date in front of you – your thesis can be nullified pretty fast if they start talking about how they still live with their ex-boyfriend/girlfriend – In this example, the two notions are not contradictory – and that is how you need to think of it.

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