Daily Market Analysis

2022-08-16

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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09:30:00
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The overnight news is light and the price action is bullish. The market has tested the bid early in the day and once support has been confirmed it grinds higher and closes near the high...
09:30:00
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The overnight news is light and the price action is bullish. The market has tested the bid early in the day and once support has been confirmed it grinds higher and closes near the high...
09:48:00
Pete
What's different today? Yesterday we had a 1OP spike just like today on the open. That means we should be a bit passive with longs and we should wait to see what the bear cycle might bring. Buyers gobbled up...
10:12:00
Pete
From a bullish perspective we want this 1OP bearish cycle to pass without much damage. We want to see the lod hold and then we want to see tails under body. That will be a sign that support is forming....
10:16:00
Pete
SPY making lower highs. Long wicks
10:25:00
Pete
We are chipping away at this bearish cycle without a new lod and I view that as mildly bullish. Lots of mixed candles and no direction yet.
10:30:00
Pete
Pete there are so many stocks to look at. How do I choose? big D1 breakouts thru resistance on heavy volume. You want to see some stacked green candles this AM. While the market is inching lower you want stocks...
10:36:00
Pete
This drop is early buyers getting flushed out. They were looking for a bounce and now that we are thru the lod they are regretting that. This is why we wait for these cycles to complete.
10:57:00
Pete
Now we know that the long red candle was to flush out early buyers. The move reversed instantly and the 1OP bearish cycle is complete. I would start gradually scaling into longs here.
11:00:00
Pete
We want the middle of the long green candle to hold. In general, the action is choppy so no rush to do anything. If you have the right stock and it is inching higher you can scale in
11:09:00
Pete
We will not see a meaningful market drop until buyers are discouraged. How might that happen? It could be a huge gap down with stacked red candles that never recovers. That would require major news and I do not see...
11:10:00
Pete
I like what I see here. This is a good entry point for longs.
11:20:00
Pete
1OP bullish cross. We want half of the long green candle preserved and we want a new hod on this cycle. If we do not have both, we need to be careful with longs the rest of the day
11:26:00
Pete
Where did those long green candles come from on SPY? Clue: Same place the long red candle came from. Short sellers were squeezed (stopped out) when we made a new hod.
11:28:00
Pete
Are the long green candles a head fake too? We won't know for a couple of bars, but chances are - no. We are early in the bullish cycle and the long term market trend is up. We want the...
12:11:00
Pete
We are only 15 S&P pts from the 200-day MA. That will provide some resistance.
12:20:00
Pete
If you are hot and bothered to get long here, take a deep breath and relax. This is not a good entry point. 1. We are in the middle of the trading day. 2. We have rallied 30 S&P pts...
12:39:00
Pete
12:58:00
Pete
Now you should be looking for stocks near hod that did not pullback. The 1OP bearish cycle is still running its course, but we should be near the tail end of it. We want to see the close from the...
13:06:00
Pete
Tails under body SPY M5 and pending bullish cross. thru half of long red candle is bullish. This is where you would add
13:24:00
Pete
I hope all of you are starting to feel the ebb and flow of the market. What seemed random before starts to make sense. During each cycle you have expectations of what the market will do based on previous price...
13:26:00
Pete
I have provided you with a play-by-play and called out every wiggle and jiggle. It is not a fluke, I do this daily and so can you. 1OP is the best indicator you will ever find. If you add a...
13:32:00
Pete
What did I expect from the last bearish 1OP cycle? A small round of profit taking and a brief and shallow drop. Why? Because the market has strong upward momentum D1 and because it proved to me that the move...
13:46:00
Pete
We have a new hod and we want this long green candle to hold. We closed at the high and this bar needs to be green. We are about $.70 from the SPY 200-day MA and we should get there
14:26:00
Pete
Tiny bodied candles suggest resistance during the last stretch of this rally. We should expect that with the 200-day (MA). 1OP bearish cross pending. Let's see how anxious buyers are to take profits here.
14:33:00
Pete
We have a bearish cross and the open from the last green candle has been breached. You should be and you are taking gains!!!
14:38:00
Pete
I would say they were pretty anxious to take profits at the 200-day MA. Some of this drop will be bullish specs bailing out so I am going to take that into account. What happens in the next 20 min...
14:42:00
Pete
I mentioned earlier that we are not going to see a sustained drop until we see a smack down from the hod. This certainly qualifies, but we would need to see follow thru, not just flushing bullish specs out. We...
15:02:00
Pete
These are stacked long red candles and they need to be respected. Do NOT buy this 1OP cross. We need lots of time and confirmation and a bearish div and a close on lod is still very possible. This late...
16:08:00
Pete
@Snakebight Even if the market closed on the lod today, we would need to see overnight selling and follow thru. We should expect resistance at the 200-day after a big market rally last few weeks and on the first attempt...
16:27:55
Pete
17:52:00
Pete
lilsgymdan wrote: @Pete  One thing I've noticed which I think is a mistake is anticipating 1op crosses to exit. EG I took profits on HD around $299 when I saw it dip into the bottom yellow line. But so often these...
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