2022-08-24

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09:30:00 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY–August is a slow month. The market had a 12% bounce in a month and now we are seeing some profit taking. How long will the drop last and how deep might it be? The price action...
09:38:00 Pete	SPY poked thru the lod from Tues and the support level where they tried to trigger sell stops. We want to see support here when 1OP is in a deep trough.
09:39:00 Pete	Typically, when the market has been slow previous days and you get a flat open, there is not going to be much movement. The market will try both sides and the moves are sporadic. Eventually one side will prevail and...
09:46:00 Pete	I will look back 20 days to see if I can find an example.
09:48:00 Pete
09:51:00 Pete	Many traders will turn off their screens and wish they had played golf instead. They will have forced trades and lost money. It is very important not to piss your capital away in shitty markets and to be able to...
10:05:00 Pete	oh, oh, oh. bullish 1OP cross, bullish engulfing candle off of the lod... buy, buy, buy. On another day maybe, but not today. traders will ask why this pattern did not work. Context is critically important and that is why...
10:08:00 Pete	Is that bullish engulf off of the lod significant? It might be. Let's see how much of it we retrace. If we make a higher low here and start to gain traction, we might have a little nice upside. You...
10:10:00 Pete	Half of the long green candle held and now we are starting to grind higher. I have more confidence that the bullish cycle will produce.
10:31:00 Pete	This looks and feels like a nice rally unfolding. Bullish engulfing pattern off of the lod, small retracement and bullish flag. Nice long green candle after that. Feels really good - right?
10:32:00 Pete	Where have I seen this exact pattern before? Yesterday. Look at how quickly that deteriorated.
10:35:00 Pete	Just like yesterday, we have to wait for signs of resistance. Maybe we get them, maybe not. If we make a lower high and the bullish cycle matures without any more upside, we have to expect some retracement on the...
10:41:00 Pete	and now that gorgeous long green candle at the hod has been given back.
10:43:00 Pete	This is the kind of garbage we will be dealing with today. I would be ready to short the next attempt to get back to the hod, but only as a scalp. The whole day you should have a scalping...
10:55:00 Pete	Bearish 1OP cross and tails above body. Not able to challenge hod
10:56:00 Pete	I would be careful with longs here. This is the EXACT pattern we had yesterday.
10:58:00 Pete	In a choppy market, there is no harm in taking gains on longs and seeing what the bear cycle brings. For shorting, if you have a super weak stock here you can try. Just know that if the SPY does...
11:11:00 Pete	I don't know if any of you are noticing the resistance just above the hod. We have touched that 4+ times. That means at some point we are going to see a breakout above that level to trigger buy stops...
11:14:55 Pete
11:15:00 Pete	Could not get that chart annotated fast enough. We got it now. Let's see if we have follow thru
11:19:00 Pete	We want this breakout to hold. If not, we go back into the range and a repeat of Tues likely.
11:42:00 Pete	This is nice movement and we got follow thru. We should have some nice trades that set up both ways. The lod is in.
12:43:00 Pete	The buy stops that triggered at the $413.75 level fueled a follow thru move. Unusual that it did not instantly reverse like the one yesterday, but that is what we wanted because an expanded range produces better moves. As we...
12:45:00 Pete	This has a "newsy feel" to it so I would not be surprised that a Fed official might have said 75 basis points is on the table for Sept. This is the time of year when you see recycled news....
13:09:00 Pete	Pretty heavy round of selling so you want to make sure the low is in. Watch the middle of the last red candle. 1OP ready to cross and we can expect movement both ways. You just want to make sure...
13:12:00 Pete	Probe to the middle of this green candle and then close above that for this candle would be enough to get me long. You just do not want this green candle to be given up easily. Most of you are...
13:13:00 Pete	so we are testing the middle of that green candle. if this candle finishes near its high, that would get me long.
13:22:23 Pete
13:32:00 Pete	This is why you have to be super careful buying early when there has been heavy selling. You have to make double sure that support is in. A bullish 1OP cross could turn into a bear div. 1OP could reverse...
13:47:00 Pete	Question: How does one confirm when it is a breakout or a headfake?You have to wait for follow through. If the breakout candle instantly reverses it is a head fake. and the market is likely to go the other way...
13:50:00 Pete	Think of yourself. If you bought that solo green candle thinking the bounce was underway, you are regretting that decision 10 min later. You are bailing out of the position along with other traders and that fuels the drop. We...