Daily Market Analysis

2022-09-01

Mark As Read
Mark As Read

Review our intraday commentary to learn how we interpret price action and build a market narrative.

Drag the blue slider to reveal the day's price action. Dots on the timeline represent comments and can be clicked. View the table below for all market-related comments and annotated charts (including those from after hours).

All Comments

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08:18:48
Pete
Short ES 3942. Overseas markets soft and bearish 1OP cross. Long green candle erased so looks like buying climax once into overnight gap
08:25:01
Pete
08:27:46
Pete
I do not usually trade the overnight session because I am too @#$% tired. You can see how well 1OP caught the moves. 1. You need to have futures data with Ameritrade or IB. 2. You need to use the...
08:29:05
Pete
I have a stop in at 3940 and a 10 pt target at 3932
08:30:18
Pete
i plan to be out before the open. thinks often look very different when the "big boys" show up. 
08:33:13
Pete
Exit ES 10 point gain. 
08:38:41
Pete
In this case it was what I thought I could get without pressing too hard. I thought that last up move would reverse and it did. 1OP was also sinking fast so wanted to be out before the cross.
08:40:11
Pete
The price action overnight has been choppy and that move into the gap looked like a fake. Overseas markets were weak and our market has been in a down trend. That spike gave me a chance to join the trend...
08:59:24
Pete
1OP big drop and cross. Would I buy /ES here? No. I want to trade from the short side. Overseas markets are weak and so is ours.
09:00:03
Pete
We have a bullish hammer and price compression at this level, but that is not enough... especially in the overnight session.
09:01:03
Pete
That little spike was slapped down instantly so sellers are watching and I doubt we get back there. That was a quick trade and I will wait for the open. 
09:27:34
Pete
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY � The selling pressure that started with last Friday�s Fed speak in Jackson Hole is gaining traction. The S&P 500 has broken the 100-day MA and the 50-day MA in the last week and the futures...
09:44:19
Pete
Given the AH spank down when the SPY entered the overnight gap, I don't think we are going to get much lift this morning. Let's see if we do. Just looking for good entry for short.
10:41:19
Pete
SPY can't get back to the hod. Those green candles were to shake out early shorts. I was hoping for a bearish cross near the hod. I will let you know if I take a short position.  
10:43:02
Pete
Short SPY $391. 1/2
10:43:37
Pete
I will add on a new lod. Don't want to miss the move. Would prefer to add at a higher level
10:45:21
Pete
Short SPY $390.60 1/2. 
10:47:45
Pete
My ave is $390.80. The way that short covering bounce was instantly erased tells me that we have not seen the lod. I should have a bearish 1OP cross soon and that will help. I am also going off of...
10:49:38
Pete
Covered much of this in the video. I had a short on when I recorded the video and I took gains on the bullish 1OP cross.
10:55:24
Pete
Early price action tells me to expect chop. We are on the eve of a big number and the market has been crushed this week. That tells me there will be bounces. If I get a really nice long red...
10:56:18
Pete
This bearish cycle needs to produce or I will exit as well.
11:01:56
Pete
Exit SPY $.40 gain on 1/2
11:02:32
Pete
Exit SPY $.40 gain on remainder. 
11:04:13
Pete
1OP is heading back up and the lod is very stubborn. Erroring on the side of caution and can look for a better entry when I get a good 1OP cross.
11:09:21
Pete
I am likely to short this bounce and I suspect it will be a solo with this bearish 1OP cross pending. I will wait for the retracement and I want to see it smacked down. You have to be much...
11:11:09
Pete
What we do not want to see is another green candle and I am making sure we don't get one before I short. Gaps down are more difficult to short because much of the move might have already happened. It...
11:12:38
Pete
This is starting to look like a downward sloping trading channel. That is possible today. Choppy action with a bearish bias.
11:13:54
Pete
Yesterday I mentioned that I like the red 1OP line to be declining during a bearish cross. We did not have that and I was early (and eager). 
11:20:19
Pete
Short SPY $391.60. 1/2 
11:20:42
Pete
Will add if $391.30 breached.
11:22:11
Pete
Short SPY $391.30
11:23:34
Pete
Ave $391.45. This will probably be my last trade of the day. I love it, but trading is a distraction right now and this is likely to be a slow day. I need to stay focused on other projects.
11:27:11
Pete
I have a $392 stop. No target because I want to see what happens on this bearish cross. If you connect the M5 lows you will see where the trendline would extend. That would be my target (unless we start...
11:35:40
Pete
Exit SPY $.55 loss. Up for the day and time to get to work
11:37:15
Pete
This is a higher low and the last two green candles were not reversed. That tells me it was more than short covering and support is forming. 
11:38:35
Pete
This has the makings of a very slow day so use extra caution.
11:40:40
Pete
CLICK HERE TO WATCH TODAY'S VIDEO
13:56:48
Pete
I'm glad to see that there are not many trades today. You recognized the poor trading conditions and you are staying sidelined. This type of discipline is critically important and there will be days like this.
13:59:15
Pete
I am going to do the same and I will be working remotely tomorrow morning. I will watch the jobs number and post comments, but I only plan to be in the room for the first hour of trading. 
14:01:31
Pete
The good news is that this will be a busy fall. More tightening to come, traders will be back and the economic impact of tightening will start to surface. Typically the volume will start to gradually come back after next...
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