2022-09-07

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09:29:39 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY � The ECB rate hike tomorrow is going to pressure the market and we are likely to see nervous jitters.This SPY $390 level is critical support. If it fails it will spark more selling and we...
09:31:08 Pete	From July we pretty much rallied 12% and then gave it all back in Aug.
10:04:46 Pete	Continued choppy conditions. Long mixed candles and no direction. This current bar is 15 pt range and it is not complete yet.
10:06:06 Pete	Our best play today will be on the short side once this bullish cycle runs. We want to see a high that is much lower than the high from Tues
10:16:55 Pete	This bullish 1OP cycle is not providing much upside. We might not even challenge the hod by the time it completes. I would be searching for shorts
10:37:42 Pete	We are close to a bearish 1OP cross. I would like to see some wicks. That would be a sign of resistance. Reference the price action at the hod Tues and look for those wicks.
10:46:50 Pete	Short SPY $392.50
10:48:25 Pete	Bearish hammer off of hod. Open from that bearish hammer violated, lower high than Tues, bearish 1OP cross. This is where I would start shorting. We also have a longer term bearish trend that I can lean into.
10:54:36 Pete	Choppy market yesterday and today, so I am willing to give the trade room. I do not want to take out the hod from Tues and I do not want to close above the hod from today. Provided that does...
11:05:58 Pete	Exit SPY $393.20.
11:08:00 Pete	That was $.70 loss. I will wait for this move to run its course. These 12+ pt candles still indicate a lot of choppy price action. I did not want to close near the hod. I will post my next...
11:18:58 Pete	We want to follow that last green candle with a bear engulf or a bear hammer in here. That would be a sign of a buying climax and that the breakout was to trigger buy stops.
11:31:31 Pete	$393.20 is where I would look to re-enter my short. That was my exit. I want to be well inside of Tues high and I want to get there will some long red candles. We are getting a bearish 1OP...
11:38:18 Pete	Lots of long tails/wicks on the way up and overlap. The moves yesterday were similar in nature. We have major news pending Thurs so this chunky price action is probably going to last the remainder of the day. If we...
11:53:02 Pete	SPY starting to leak a little oil. We are inside of the high from Tues, but mixed candles which suggests that there are still some buyers. Normally when they trigger buy stops you will see a breakout and an immediate...
12:19:05 Pete	We may finally have two consecutive red candles. The bar has not finished yet
12:21:19 Pete	Short SPY $393.20
12:24:12 Pete	I have a bid in at $392.50. If we get a big red candle down to that level, I will take the gains in this chop and look to reload. Market has had tons of retracement and there is no...
12:31:45 Pete	Exit SPY for scratch. This is just too choppy.
12:32:50 Pete	1OP is well into the bearish cycle and it did not produce what I wanted. Market could still drift lower, but mixed candles everywhere.
12:43:19 Pete	The reason I exited the short SPY trade was that we finally got 3 stacked red candles. They were not long, but at least consecutive. I had a low ball bid in and if the selling pressure got cooking I...
12:44:43 Pete	Normally you do not have to micro manage a position like this, but trading SPY is very hard and when you do not have any momentum, you have to do just that.
12:56:50 Pete	If we take out the open of that last long green candle, that would signal a buying climax. An instant reversal off of a new hod would be bearish and that would get me to consider a short.
13:02:50 Pete	you can see how they defended the open of that last long green SPY candle. That is bullish as far as this breakout goes.
13:03:03 Pete	I will post a chart.
13:20:28 Pete
13:21:10 Pete	This annotation is a bit congested. I will try to repost another after the close and we might have some other moves I can highlight.
13:21:41 Pete	In general, this is chop, but the candles still tell a story... just harder to read.
13:24:57 Pete	EE wrote: Pete when you closed your short what made you deicide not to go long, even for intraday?At that stage the longer term SPY down trend (D1) and the relatively weak up trend with overlapping candles. 1OP was crossing...
13:26:43 Pete	All of these mini pullbacks off of the hod are attracting shorts and that fuels the next move higher when they cover.
13:30:11 Pete	When I covered my positions today, I did not want to be long, I just knew that I did not want to be short. I did not see that lift off coming, I was lucky and I managed the short...
13:34:13 Pete	The move higher has been a nice long green candle on hod that retraces. That gets shorts excited. The retracement is tick, tick, tick lower. Then blam long green bar and they cover for a loss and we make a...
13:37:20 Pete	The "real deal" (if it happens today) will be a long green candle that makes a new hod followed by a bearish engulfing candle followed by a red candle closing on its low. Ideally that all happens on a big...
13:39:05 Pete	It could also be a very tall bearish hammer that made a new hod and then a red candle immediately that closes on its low.
13:39:47 Pete	While I was writing all of that, we got the pattern I was describing.
13:45:18 Pete	The next part of this set up could be coming. It is when all of the shorts throw in the towel and they decide to buy. We know what happens then. You get a long green bar like this and...
13:45:56 Pete	Not going to jump to any conclusions, just watching as far as SPY
13:52:18 Pete
13:52:41 Pete	We don't predict these, we watch for them.
13:57:17 Pete	1OP getting some nice lift here. I would love to see that long green candle thru $397 followed immediately by a bearish engulfing candle.
14:01:54 Pete	Unless I see the exact pattern I outlined or a fast move to $395.50, I am on the sidelines with SPY.
14:02:41 Pete	Stock is a different story and I see many of you buying some good stocks.
14:05:04 Pete	If you only like the short side, that is OK too. You just have to wait... sometimes all day to get your set up.
14:05:38 Pete	Now let's see those twin towers. We have the green one, we just need the red one.
14:08:19 Pete	Treat longs with caution here. If this green candle reverses you have seen the hod.
14:09:17 Pete	Short SPY $397 1/2
14:09:33 Pete	I will put a half position on here and add on weakness
14:14:05 Pete	on this pattern I want IMMEDIATE selling. This candle needs to be red. I am only looking to add if we close below the open of the long green candle.
14:16:02 Pete	My odds of success just went down, but I am sticking with it. This candle for sure needs to be red. I only have 1/2 a position on so not sweating it at all
14:18:02 Pete	Short SPY $396.50 1/2
14:19:18 Pete	$396.75 ave. $397 stop. I do not want to go back there and I do not believe we will
14:20:39 Pete	Bearish 1OP cross. If you have been waiting to short, this is your time. We took out the open from the long green candle.
14:30:54 Pete	Short SPY $.25 loss. Sometimes you get the perfect set-up and it does not pan out.
14:33:32 Pete	I am still considering the short side. There were two issues with this not being perfect . The first was that we did not get the bearish engulf on one candle. The second was that doji between the two candles....
14:34:41 Andreas	@Pete At what point do we consider this a bull trend day?  cause it's the same as other bull trend days that i've seen in the past
14:35:15 Pete	@Andreas About an hour ago
14:48:31 Pete	This should be a good bullish cross.
14:58:43 Pete	I just don't feel like trading the long side. The candles are tiny on the SPY and I would not have any staying power ahead of the ECB rate hike and Fed speak. One long red bar this late in...
15:01:02 Pete	I get asked everyday why we don't just trade SPY. It is so much harder to trade than stock and this is a classic example. I pointed out LULU a couple of hours ago. I would have no worries trading...
15:03:35 Pete	My job is to help you read the market and that is why I focus on SPY. I can watch one underlying and do all of the other things I do. That is why I do not post stock entries...
15:12:37 Pete	@A man When did you stop shorting?
15:13:08 A man	@Pete Break of yesterday's high
15:13:22 A man	I stopped trading entirely after that
15:14:06 Pete	@A man Good! That was a key moment. Until then it was safe to assume that any rally would eventually fail and the market would roll over ahead of major news
15:16:13 A man	I was expecting today to be more of a range day so I was watching yesterday�s high as possible resistance. Once it broke, I no longer wanted to trade since I didn�t feel comfortable going long.
15:17:43 Pete	@A man So was I. For the first hour of trading, there was nothing to suggest that we would have anything different. There was not a big gap up, the volume was light and there were not any stacked candles.
15:19:21 A man	@Pete It�s the mixed candles and low volume that kept me in my shorts, up until the break of yesterday�s high. Bullish trend day was certainly not something I was expecting!
15:19:37 Pete	@A man So the same mentality that prompted you to take short positions made you a lot of money on the way down. Fading stalled bounces at the hod was excellent the last 2 weeks. You should keep doing what is...
15:23:08 Pete	You waited for your set-ups at the hod, you try some shorts, you see the market make a new hod and you take your losses. You can mix in some longs like DaveW did to hedge the position or you...
16:00:17 Pete
16:01:24 Andreas	@Pete If it's difficult for you to trade this, imagine how difficult it is for the rest of us... thank you for putting yourself out there...
16:01:27 Pete	... and that's all I've got to say about that
16:07:23 Pete	@Andreas Not difficult, just not profitable. I knew what I was expecting and I stuck to the rules. Every single trade I used patience and I had very sound reasoning for taking the trade. I had the longer term trend in...
16:09:03 Snakebight	I'm curious, why were pros not influenced today towards a stronger bullish bias? Are you waiting for the reaction to the ECB tomorrow + Powell? I see a lot of rejection of SPY 390, and bulls keep seeming to come...
16:22:10 Pete	@Snakebight I don't see 9/1 as being significant at all. We took out that low yesterday. As far as today, one day does not make a trend. If you look at the SPY D1 chart from the start of the year,...
16:45:08 Pete	Crux wrote: For Dave or Hari (Pete - not sure if you are loaded up on shorts but if you are feel free to chime in!) - I'm curious about the loading up on shorts yesterday. I get the bearish...
16:54:59 Pete	@Snakebight I did find it interesting that you chose to highlight 9/1 in your question. Traders often see what they want to see. I was much more influenced by the massive 100 pt S&P reversal off of the 100-day MA on...
17:13:16 Pete	Snakebight wrote: @Pete I was recalling the severe bounce off 390 on 9/1, all the way to the high on 9/2. That was a monster $12 move. Of course, SPY lost it on 9/2, and the bulls got slapped back down....
17:20:35 Opreme	@Pete Am I on a good track in observing that todays green candle on the D1 had lower than average volume on the 1OVol indicator, making it a weak pop?
17:47:07 Pete	@Opreme Yes and one candle is not important on any time frame.