2022-12-06

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09:32:12 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday the S&P 500 tried to get back above the 200-day MA. It was smacked down and we are not seeing follow through buying after the big “Fed speak” rally last week. That is a...
09:32:28 Pete	Good morning.
09:45:27 Pete	fairly bearish start to the day.
09:47:00 Pete	This is the D1 up trendline that we are testing right out of the gate. 1OP in bearish cycle. If we have follow thru I will short. Don't want to rush to judgement this early in the day. The threat...
09:48:02 Pete	No overnight news and light volume has me thinking this drop is just to excite Hari
09:56:26 Pete	The second mouse gets the cheese. If this trendline breach is legit, there will be plenty of time to join the drop. The volume will start to increase if it is real. Until then, this would be a great place...
09:57:18 Pete	A bounce off of the uptrend line is just as good to trade as a breach. We need to make sure which one we are going to get.
09:59:40 Pete	Short ES 3978 1/2
10:00:02 Pete	1/2 position. I will dip my toe in the water to start
10:00:14 Pete	We are getting some follow thru
10:01:16 Pete	I would prefer not to see a lot of retracement. Just a steady tick, tick, tick lower. That would be a sign of persistent selling pressure
10:03:11 Pete	Short ES $3974
10:03:47 Pete	$3976 is my ave price for ES and full position
10:06:57 Pete	/ES I have a $3981 stop. That gives me 5 pts of risk and plenty or room for this to move around. No target. We could test the 100-day MA for all I know. I need to watch the price...
10:13:52 Pete	Exit ES 4966 for 10 pt gain
10:15:05 Pete	1OP is deep in a trough and we are early in the day. The bodies of the candles are tiny and I suspect at least a small bounce. I am going to take the quick 10 pts and monitor.
10:16:43 Pete	Getting "cute" could cost me and I might have to enter at a lower price and that is a risk I am willing to take. We are not moving lower in big chunks and that is what I needed to...
10:17:16 Pete	I am still bearish and if I were trading stock, I would be sticking with shorts that are ticking lower and have rel weak
10:17:38 Pete	My exit has more to do with trading /ES
10:24:38 Pete	A benign bullish cycle gets me short again. A bullish cycle that produces a strong bounce would get me long. If we rally back above the low from Mon, there will be a fair amount of short covering. I would...
10:25:42 Pete	It is always important to see both sides. Ask yourself what the other side might be thinking and where they would be vulnerable.
10:29:35 Pete	I have to step away for 20 min. I hope I don't miss a move.
10:56:28 Pete	I am back. Market has not moved much. This cycle is benign so far and the volume today has been on the downside. This looks like a legit breakdown and drift lower
10:57:14 Pete	Short ES 3960
11:00:53 Pete	With the tiny candles and the bullish 1OP cross it was best for me to wait and see what the cycle would bring. That is why I took gains on the first short. If this was going to be a...
11:04:01 Pete	This has the characteristics of a bearish trend day, but you all know that already. < prior day low, decent volume on decline, candles of a single color, little to no retracement, benign bullish 1OP cycle...
11:05:15 Pete	I forgot to add one item to that list, technical D1 breakdown
11:06:29 Pete	Load up? Heck no. These are tiny bodied candles. Stick with short positions, don't oversize, but ride them longer.
11:07:41 Pete	When we see green candles, we want them slapped down Will Smith style.
11:15:53 Pete	When you get days like this, don't be afraid of green candles, embrace them. We need them for confirmation. When they get smacked down we know we are on the right side. We don't even mind a long "solo" as...
11:17:05 Pete	1OP is invaluable. It told us when to watch for a possible bounce and when we didn't get one it served as confirmation on the short side. We have the bearish cross and down we go.
11:38:08 Pete	If you look at the early price action yesterday you will notice similar qualities. The first bounce was scary Mon and it tested the 200-day MA. It lasted a while and it had some green candles. That attempt at a...
11:40:39 Pete	"Pete told me to always hang on to short positions and not to get head faked out near the lod." Wrong! Pete told you to evaluate the market conditions yesterday and to identify that a trend day was under way....
11:44:11 Pete	Context, context, context. We need to know the backdrop. Only then can we set expectations. Only then can we game plan. Each day is different. This lesson is for trend days and for "nervous Nellie" who bitches that they always...
11:44:15 Hariseldon	What is SPY likely to do here? Test the SMA right beneath it. If you are a buyer, you want to see that line hold before really engaging, which means buyers will begin to hold off thus dropping the price...
11:46:16 Hariseldon	Don't forget tonight there is the results (potentially) for the GA run-off election.  Will that impact the markets? Unclear but it might
11:46:33 Pete	@Hariseldon Excellent point.
11:47:29 Pete	Now that you mention it I hope we are not going to wait around for that news.
11:48:28 Pete	I need to see some downside progress during the next bearish cycle. If I do not, I will exit the trade. If that happens, we might not move much.
11:54:16 Pete	I will have to leave for  dentist appointment in less than an hour. I will have a crown and my wife has implants. I know there has to be a joke in there somewhere.
12:02:01 Pete	Exit ES 2 pt gain
12:03:55 Pete	There is no need to park in a position during a compression when I have to get ready to go. However, I do like the bearish cross on 1OP here and if I had the time I would probably stick...
12:30:36 Pete	There is the breakdown. This is not near significant support so this is not a head fake. We will see that halfway point from the long red candle hold and we will keep drifting lower. This is the kind of...
15:04:18 Pete	I'm back and the market cooperated. Nice steady drift lower to the 100-day MA. That is how you identify and trade a bearish trend day. It was a little unusual to get two in a row, but the signs were...
15:06:19 Pete	1OVol stayed above zero for most of the move. No violent snap back rallies or retracement to shake you out. Just ride the wave.
15:07:30 Pete	I would obviously take gains on day trading shorts. That test of the 100-day matched up with a bullish 1OP cross so natural exit.
15:35:28 Pete