Posted 9:30 AM ET – The S&P 500 is 40 points above the low from the overnight session. I do not trust the opening gap higher. The market has been opening on the high and closing on the low and yesterday it finished Monday firmly below the 100-day MA. I believe there is more downside to come.
On the bullish side of the ledger the same theme has been playing out for years. Bond yields do not keep pace with inflation (negative real returns) so investors are piling into stocks. The best investment for many of companies is share buybacks and that is also keeping a bid to the market.
On the bearish side of the ledger, stock valuations have not been this high since the tech bubble of 2000. Earnings season will start next week and the number of analyst downgrades is greater than the number of upgrades (bearish).China may have credit issues with the failure of Evergrande and the world is waiting to see how China responds. Electricity is in short supply in China and they are rationing it. This will impact manufacturing. Supply disruptions are surfacing everywhere and this will add to the problem. China’s manufacturing PMI for September was in contraction territory. It’s not just China, there are energy supply shortages everywhere and India only has 4 days of coal reserves left. Oil/energy are primary input costs and this will spark inflation.
The economic news this week will be heavy and ISM services will be released after the open. As a survey I view this as one of the few “forward looking” indicators.
From a technical standpoint we have seen the heaviest selling in a year. The retest of the 100-day MA told us that sellers are in command. Yesterday the market closed below the 100-day MA and it was not able to mount a meaningful rally the entire day. This suggests that sellers are still in control and that we will see lower prices.
Day traders should stay very fluid. I will be watching for a gap reversal this morning. Long red candles stacked in the first half hour of trading will be a sign that the selling pressure remains heavy. If we see this, it could be the running start that we need to take out the low from Monday. A choppy open that drifts higher would keep me sidelined. I will be searching for relative weakness and I will be looking for a shorting opportunity. I am more bearish than bullish.
I am not able to elaborate more on the macro news, but I will try to do so Wednesday. The storm clouds are building.
Support is at SPY $422 Resistance is at the 100-day MA.