Market Breakout – Bid Should Remain Strong Ahead of Earnings Season

July 6, 2021

Posted 9:30 AM ET – Last week the market shot higher on strong employment. During the month of June 850,000 new jobs were created and the hourly wage component only increased by .3%. This was a “Goldilocks” number and the resistance in pre-holiday trading was minimal. The S&P 500 is flat this morning.

Earnings season is a couple of weeks away and the market bid should remain strong. The S&P 500 is trading at a forward P/E of 24 and a current P/E of 38. These are rich by historical standards, but with low bond yields, investors are still plowing money into the market.

The economic numbers have been strong, but not incredible. ISM services will be posted after the open today.

Tomorrow the FOMC minutes will be released and traders will be watching for a more hawkish tone from the Fed.

From a technical perspective, we have a breakout and follow through. Aggressive swing traders took 1/2 position in SPY last week and should set a target of SPY $440 and a stop of $30. Light volume rallies are very dangerous for swing traders that have a 3 to 4 week time horizon because these gains can quickly be stripped away. Your best strategy is to wait for a market dip if you are a longer term swing trader. I still consider this to be a low probability trading environment that is ideally suited for day traders and VERY short-term swing traders.

Day traders should expect a relatively dull day. The gains from Friday will be tested and I suggest waiting before you buy stocks. Spend the first hour looking for sectors with strength and finding stocks with heavy volume and relative strength. My goal is to find a few good stocks each day and then to focus on them.

Support is at the low from Friday. Based on a measured move from the high on June 15th and the low on June 18th, resistance is at SPY $436.
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