The market has major news pending next week and it needs to add to the breakout soon or it will fall back into the trading range.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The market broke out through a horizontal resistance level last week and it is struggling to advance. We are seeing a rotation out of big tech (QQQ) and Consumer Stables (XLP). These have been considered “safe havens” and that money is rotating into small cap stocks (IWM). This is a “risk on” move. We are also seeing some money flow into the tech laggards. VIX/VXX is declining and that is a sign that confidence is building (very little fear). Given that almost all of the gains in the S&P 500 this year have come from a handful of mega cap tech stocks, I view this as a healthy sign.
The CPI will be posted next Tuesday and the FOMC statement will be released Wednesday. Analysts are expecting the Fed to pause (70%). Canada raised 25 basis points yesterday and the ECB will hike 25 basis points next week.
The economic releases this week have been “soft”. ISM services is barely in expansion territory and China’s trade numbers were weak (imports -4.5% and exports – 7.5%).
Yesterday the market opened on the high and it closed on the low. It needs to move above the high from Wednesday before the week concludes or it will drop back into the previous trading range. I doubt that we will see that level of enthusiasm with the CPI and FOMC less than a week away. In all likelihood, we will chop around on light volume and wait for those releases.
From a trading standpoint, the drop yesterday was not very strong. We had mixed overlapping candles the entire way down and that still shows that buyers are engaged. The rotation out of big tech is also bullish. I still favor trading from the long side. Our best scenario is an early probe that establishes support. I would like to see a bearish 1OP cycle that does not produce and that features lots of tails near the low from Wednesday. I do not feel that buyers have disappeared and they will take a shot at some point today.
Watch for a low volume inside day. If we get this pattern we could have a nice set up for some longs.
Support is at $426. Resistance is at $429.60.