2022-12-13

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08:29:50 Pete	Let's hope for a big CPI reaction! I want some dang volume.
08:35:57 Pete	This move will take us to the major downward sloping trendline on W1/D1 basis.
09:30:50 Pete	PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Let’s cut to the quick. We have been in “wait and see” mode and the market has been compressing between the 100-day MA and the 200-day MA on light volume. This is triple witching (Friday)...
09:53:02 Pete	Great time to look for longs and to wait for this 1OP bearish cycle to run. Since 1 hour before the close Mon the S&P 500 is up 130 pts.
10:01:58 Pete	I am watching the lod and the way we attack it here. If we blow thru it, we could fill in more of the gap. Be patient with longs. Like my wife reminds me, look but don't touch.
10:06:49 Pete	Short ES 4114 1/2 size
10:08:24 Pete	/ES $4114 stop (entry)
10:08:49 Pete	I have a little cushion and I want that prior lod (now resistance to hold).
10:11:22 Pete	Exit ES stopped for scratch. OK with that.
10:14:10 Pete	1OP is in a steady decline and I believe we have some work to do on the downside. If that drop below the lod gained instant traction I would have had a great entry and I would have been able...
10:15:09 Pete	You can see that we are making lower highs and lower lows. That is a choppy downward sloping channel so far.
10:17:33 Pete	Lots of breakouts through downward sloping trendlines D1. At very minimum the longs you are considering should have that. Heavy volume also a must
10:20:19 Pete
10:21:06 Pete	SPY is right on that downward sloping trendline and we have to watch for a possible rejection.
10:28:12 Pete	VXX has barely moved. IVs are getting pounded. That makes me question how far this drop will go. I am a bit surprised by that because this would be a great time for institutions to buy IV ahead of the...
10:39:57 Pete	VXX is starting to grind higher. That is a sign that this move lower is gaining traction
10:41:41 Pete	The SPY has recovered more than half of the gap up. That is a sign of selling pressure.
10:48:08 Pete	We can consider longs and shorts. The down trend line D1 was firmly rejected. We have moved far enough off of the hod to suggest that the selling pressure is fairly heavy and that the downtrend line is likely to...
10:51:21 Pete	I would NOT buy this 1OP bullish cross until the open from the long red candle is breached. We need technical confirmation. This has been a steady drop from the high so far.
11:06:14 Pete	Notice how the bars have little to no retracement on SPY. That is a sign of steady selling pressure during this decline from the high. I would still not be overly anxious with longs here. We need proof that there...
11:07:12 Pete	The half-way point of the last red candle has been preserved. If there were buying pressure we would have seen a move thru that and to the high from the long red candle.
11:21:30 Pete	I believe we are preparing for another leg lower. No market bounce tells me the selling pressure is heavy and 1OP could easily roll back over
11:23:32 Pete	When you get long "rangy" candles it tells you there is two-sided action. When you get a directional move and the candles are squashed (small bodies) at the low end of the range it is a sign that sellers are...
11:24:22 Pete	Every little attempt to lift offers and to test the "ask" is repelled. That is how institutions gauge the selling pressure.
11:25:24 Pete	When they can't lift the market they have to exit what they just bought. They don't stop there. Armed with information that the ask is firm, they sell more than what they bought and they drive the price lower
11:34:36 Pete	If SPY > $406 I will buy /ES
11:41:45 Pete	VXX is grinding higher. I view that as institutions buying cheap volatility ahead of the FOMC more than I do the price action of SPY. I was surprised that it dropped and sat when SPY was drifting lower. now they...
11:51:31 Pete	Now SPY right on the 200-day MA
11:56:31 Pete	The 200-day MA failed easily and a gap fill is likely. 1OP crossed back down.
11:58:56 Pete	I did not watch the speech, but whatever Biden had to say didn't convince traders that inflation was going down.
12:12:55 Pete	Drip, drip, drip lower. We rejected the down trendline breakout and it is intact. We took out the 200-day MA with ease. 1OP has not been able to get > 0 and it crossed back down. No upside retracement tells...
12:40:09 Pete	As a trader who is ever mindful of "context" your brain should be wondering what typically happens when we have a gap reversal (long red candle) off of a D1 relative high. So you go back and look at a...
12:42:47 Pete	For instance if your conclusion is that you can expect follow through selling over the next few days (good conclusion) and the market gapped higher the next day, your brain would be telling you... this is a good short. Wait...
12:44:14 Pete	It's is all about context and I am currently writing about that in The System.
12:55:10 Pete	So if the market gapped up overnight and I shorted the open tomorrow, the questions I get would be more along this line. "Pete do you always short gaps higher when 1OP is in a bearish cycle?" My answer is...
13:00:37 Pete	That is why I get frustrated with some of the questions that are asked. I don't have enough information to respond. What is the longer term market doing, what is the short term market doing, what is the long term...
13:05:38 Pete	It should be apparent that this is a bear trend day. We did not know that along the way, but there were signs of trouble early in the day. The selling pressure has been heavy. That means that bounces can...
13:12:16 Pete	If we get a decent little bounce, wait for it to stall and wait for the 1OP bearish cross. Then reload.
14:07:48 Pete	Short ES 4046.50. I did this trade in the video I just recorded.
14:09:29 Pete	I believe that we will not see a decent rally until the last 30 min of trading because this is a bearish trend day. We are below the down trendline and the 200-day MA. I also have a bearish 1OP...
14:34:14 Pete	I am bidding to scratch my /ES trade. I have not gotten the drop I wanted during this bearish 1OP cycle. I am also a bit preoccupied trying to get this video out.
14:51:10 Pete	CLICK HERE TO WATCH TODAY'S VIDEO
14:52:20 Pete	In the meantime, I am trying to weather this probe thru the 200-day MA. I believe it is a head fake. We need to retrace that long green candle. I am ready to stop out.
14:54:28 Pete	Now I know that breakout was a headfake.
14:54:51 Pete	I cancelled my bid to scratch the trade
15:06:31 Pete	Exit ES 4038.50 for 8 pt gain
15:11:01 Pete	I was fairly confident that we would see late day selling pressure and I covered that in the video. The poke thru the 200-day was just enough to lure bullish specs in. That is why we do not buy those...
15:41:28 Pete
15:52:28 Pete	Hariseldon wrote: Nothing like SPY bringing the "will it or won't it" right down to the wire hereExactly. sit right on the 200-day MA pre-Fed